Antigua and Barbuda vs Trinidad and Tobago Prediction & Betting Tips 12/11/2026

Antigua and Barbuda vs Trinidad and Tobago preview

In the CONCACAF Nations League match between Antigua and Barbuda and Trinidad and Tobago, the 1X2 probabilities show Antigua and Barbuda at 40%, Trinidad and Tobago at 32%, and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, which occurs 9% of the time.

Antigua and Barbuda has an expected goals figure of 1.39 compared to Trinidad and Tobago's 1.22. While both teams to score has a probability of 54% and Over 2.5 goals is at 48%, the recent form could impact the outcome. Antigua and Barbuda has won 3 of their last 6, while Trinidad and Tobago has only 2 draws in their last 6 matches.

Antigua and Barbuda vs Trinidad and Tobago: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Antigua and Barbuda	Draw	Trinidad and Tobago
Model	40%	29%	32%
Market	—	—	—
Published	40%	29%	32%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Antigua and Barbuda and Trinidad and Tobago expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.39Antigua and Barbuda

1.22Trinidad and Tobago

Total expected goals: 2.61
Attack rating (Antigua and Barbuda / Trinidad and Tobago): 0.87 / 0.79
Defence rating (Antigua and Barbuda / Trinidad and Tobago): 0.97 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Antigua and Barbuda vs Trinidad and Tobago score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.6% 7.7% 5.5% 2.2% 0.9% 1 9.0% 13.7% 7.6% 3.1% 1.2% 2 7.1% 8.7% 5.3% 2.1% 0.9% 3 3.3% 4.0% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4% 4+ 1.6% 1.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Antigua and Barbuda goals. Columns: Trinidad and Tobago goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Antigua and Barbuda vs Trinidad and Tobago goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 75%

Over 2.5 48%

Over 3.5 27%

Both teams to score: 54%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Antigua and Barbuda vs Trinidad and Tobago

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Antigua and Barbuda	40%	2.52
	Draw	29%	3.48
	Trinidad and Tobago	32%	3.16
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	48%	2.06
	Under 2.5	52%	1.94
Both teams to score	Yes	54%	1.85
	No	46%	2.18
Double chance	1X (Antigua and Barbuda or draw)	68%	1.46
	12 (either side)	71%	1.40
	X2 (draw or Trinidad and Tobago)	60%	1.66
Handicap -1	Antigua and Barbuda win by 2+	19%	5.21
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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