Aruba vs Martinique Prediction & Betting Tips 12/11/2026

Aruba vs Martinique preview

In the CONCACAF Nations League match between Aruba and Martinique, the 1X2 probabilities show Martinique at 39%, while Aruba sits at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance according to our model. Both teams to score has a probability of 56%, and there is a 51% chance for Over 2.5 goals.

Aruba's recent form includes 2 wins and 3 losses, while Martinique has 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches. The expected goals are 1.30 for Aruba and 1.42 for Martinique. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome. Factors like a sudden change in team performance could affect these predictions.

Aruba vs Martinique: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Aruba	Draw	Martinique
Model	33%	28%	39%
Market	—	—	—
Published	33%	28%	39%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Aruba and Martinique expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.30Aruba

1.42Martinique

Total expected goals: 2.72
Attack rating (Aruba / Martinique): 0.91 / 0.72
Defence rating (Aruba / Martinique): 1.23 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Aruba vs Martinique score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.8% 8.1% 6.6% 3.1% 1.5% 1 7.3% 13.4% 8.6% 4.1% 2.0% 2 5.6% 7.9% 5.6% 2.7% 1.3% 3 2.4% 3.4% 2.4% 1.2% 0.6% 4+ 1.0% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Aruba goals. Columns: Martinique goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Aruba vs Martinique goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 77%

Over 2.5 51%

Over 3.5 29%

Both teams to score: 56%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Aruba vs Martinique

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Aruba	33%	3.01
	Draw	28%	3.56
	Martinique	39%	2.58
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.95
	Under 2.5	49%	2.05
Both teams to score	Yes	56%	1.77
	No	44%	2.30
Double chance	1X (Aruba or draw)	61%	1.63
	12 (either side)	72%	1.39
	X2 (draw or Martinique)	67%	1.50
Handicap -1	Martinique win by 2+	19%	5.30
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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