Nicaragua vs Montserrat preview
In the match between Nicaragua and Montserrat, the 1X2 probabilities show Nicaragua at 12%, a draw at 20%, and Montserrat leading at 68%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, occurring at a rate of 12%. Nicaragua's expected goals stand at 0.84, while Montserrat has a significantly higher 2.22.
Nicaragua's recent form shows 5 losses and 1 win, while Montserrat has 4 wins and 1 loss. The model indicates a 59% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to score. However, if Nicaragua improves their performance or Montserrat underperforms, the expected outcome could change.
Nicaragua vs Montserrat: model vs market
| Source | Nicaragua | Draw | Montserrat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12% | 20% | 68% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 12% | 20% | 68% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Nicaragua and Montserrat expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.06
- Attack rating (Nicaragua / Montserrat)
- 0.64 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Nicaragua / Montserrat)
- 1.41 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nicaragua vs Montserrat score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nicaragua goals. Columns: Montserrat goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nicaragua vs Montserrat goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nicaragua vs Montserrat
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nicaragua | 12% | 8.35 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.94 | |
| Montserrat | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.94 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nicaragua or draw) | 32% | 3.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Montserrat) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Montserrat win by 2+ | 45% | 2.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Nicaragua and Montserrat recent form
Nicaragua
1W 0D 5L
Montserrat
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nicaragua at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Montserrat away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Nicaragua at home only, Montserrat away only.
Nicaragua vs Montserrat head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Nicaragua 3 · draws 0 · Montserrat 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-06 | Nicaragua | 4-1 | Montserrat | World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF |
| 2023-10-17 | Nicaragua | 3-0 | Montserrat | CONCACAF Nations League |
| 2023-10-13 | Montserrat | 0-3 | Nicaragua | CONCACAF Nations League |
Other Play-In Final fixtures
- Aruba vs Martinique — team news & stats 2026-11-12
- Antigua and Barbuda vs Trinidad and Tobago 2026-11-12
- Saint Martin v El Salvador — match page 2026-11-13
- Montserrat vs Nicaragua — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Trinidad and Tobago vs Antigua and Barbuda 2026-11-17
- Martinique v Aruba — match page 2026-11-17
- El Salvador vs Saint Martin — team news & stats 2026-11-18
Before and after this match
- Nicaragua, previous: Montserrat vs Nicaragua prediction
- Montserrat, previous: Montserrat vs Nicaragua prediction