Montserrat vs Nicaragua preview
Montserrat faces Nicaragua with a 72% probability of winning, while Nicaragua sits at just 10%. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-0, which aligns with an expected goals figure of 2.38 for Montserrat compared to 0.79 for Nicaragua.
However, Nicaragua has a strong historical edge, winning all three of their last encounters against Montserrat. If Nicaragua manages to improve their form, which has seen them lose 5 of their last 6 matches, the predicted outcome could change. Additionally, the model indicates a 61% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance for both teams to score, suggesting potential for more action in the match.
Montserrat vs Nicaragua: model vs market
| Source | Montserrat | Draw | Nicaragua |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Montserrat and Nicaragua expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.16
- Attack rating (Montserrat / Nicaragua)
- 0.99 / 0.64
- Defence rating (Montserrat / Nicaragua)
- 0.77 / 1.41
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Montserrat vs Nicaragua score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Montserrat goals. Columns: Nicaragua goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Montserrat vs Nicaragua goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Montserrat vs Nicaragua
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Montserrat | 72% | 1.39 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.47 | |
| Nicaragua | 10% | 10.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.99 |
| No | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Montserrat or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Nicaragua) | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Montserrat win by 2+ | 50% | 2.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Montserrat and Nicaragua recent form
Montserrat
5W 0D 1L
Nicaragua
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Montserrat at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Nicaragua away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 4.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Montserrat at home only, Nicaragua away only.
Montserrat vs Nicaragua head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Montserrat 0 · draws 0 · Nicaragua 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-06 | Nicaragua | 4-1 | Montserrat | World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF |
| 2023-10-17 | Nicaragua | 3-0 | Montserrat | CONCACAF Nations League |
| 2023-10-13 | Montserrat | 0-3 | Nicaragua | CONCACAF Nations League |
Other Play-In Final fixtures
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- Antigua and Barbuda vs Trinidad and Tobago 2026-11-12
- Saint Martin v El Salvador — match page 2026-11-13
- Trinidad and Tobago vs Antigua and Barbuda 2026-11-17
- Martinique v Aruba — match page 2026-11-17
- El Salvador vs Saint Martin — team news & stats 2026-11-18
- Nicaragua vs Montserrat 2026-11-18
Before and after this match
- Montserrat, next: Nicaragua vs Montserrat prediction
- Nicaragua, next: Nicaragua vs Montserrat prediction