Trinidad and Tobago vs Antigua and Barbuda Prediction & Betting Tips 17/11/2026

Trinidad and Tobago vs Antigua and Barbuda preview

In the CONCACAF Nations League, Trinidad and Tobago face Antigua and Barbuda with a 1X2 probability of 36% for Trinidad and Tobago, 29% for a draw, and 35% for Antigua and Barbuda. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has an 8% chance according to our model.

Both teams to score stands at 54%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 48%. Trinidad and Tobago's expected goals are 1.31, slightly above Antigua and Barbuda's 1.30. However, Trinidad and Tobago's recent form shows 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 6 matches, which could impact their performance.

Trinidad and Tobago vs Antigua and Barbuda: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Trinidad and Tobago	Draw	Antigua and Barbuda
Model	36%	29%	35%
Market	—	—	—
Published	36%	29%	35%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Trinidad and Tobago and Antigua and Barbuda expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.31Trinidad and Tobago

1.30Antigua and Barbuda

Total expected goals: 2.61
Attack rating (Trinidad and Tobago / Antigua and Barbuda): 0.79 / 0.87
Defence rating (Trinidad and Tobago / Antigua and Barbuda): 0.94 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Trinidad and Tobago vs Antigua and Barbuda score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.6% 8.3% 6.2% 2.7% 1.2% 1 8.4% 13.8% 8.1% 3.5% 1.5% 2 6.3% 8.2% 5.3% 2.3% 1.0% 3 2.7% 3.6% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4% 4+ 1.2% 1.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Trinidad and Tobago goals. Columns: Antigua and Barbuda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Trinidad and Tobago vs Antigua and Barbuda goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 75%

Over 2.5 48%

Over 3.5 27%

Both teams to score: 54%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Trinidad and Tobago vs Antigua and Barbuda

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Trinidad and Tobago	36%	2.80
	Draw	29%	3.46
	Antigua and Barbuda	35%	2.83
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	48%	2.07
	Under 2.5	52%	1.93
Both teams to score	Yes	54%	1.84
	No	46%	2.19
Double chance	1X (Trinidad and Tobago or draw)	65%	1.55
	12 (either side)	71%	1.41
	X2 (draw or Antigua and Barbuda)	64%	1.56
Handicap -1	Trinidad and Tobago win by 2+	16%	6.07
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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