Martinique vs Aruba Prediction & Betting Tips 17/11/2026

Martinique vs Aruba preview

In the CONCACAF Nations League fixture, Martinique has a 43% chance to win against Aruba, who has a 29% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. The model suggests a 52% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance for both teams to score.

Martinique's expected goals stand at 1.52, while Aruba's is 1.21. Recent form shows Martinique with two wins in their last six matches, while Aruba has three wins in their last six. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. Factors like team performance on the day or unexpected events could influence the outcome.

Martinique vs Aruba: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Martinique	Draw	Aruba
Model	43%	28%	29%
Market	—	—	—
Published	43%	28%	29%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 1.21.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Martinique and Aruba expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.52Martinique

1.21Aruba

Total expected goals: 2.74
Attack rating (Martinique / Aruba): 0.72 / 0.91
Defence rating (Martinique / Aruba): 0.84 / 1.23

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Martinique vs Aruba score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 6.7% 4.8% 1.9% 0.8% 1 8.7% 13.2% 7.3% 2.9% 1.2% 2 7.5% 9.1% 5.5% 2.2% 0.9% 3 3.8% 4.6% 2.8% 1.1% 0.5% 4+ 2.0% 2.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Martinique goals. Columns: Aruba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Martinique vs Aruba goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 77%

Over 2.5 52%

Over 3.5 29%

Both teams to score: 56%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Martinique vs Aruba

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Martinique	43%	2.31
	Draw	28%	3.62
	Aruba	29%	3.43
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	52%	1.94
	Under 2.5	48%	2.07
Both teams to score	Yes	56%	1.78
	No	44%	2.28
Double chance	1X (Martinique or draw)	71%	1.41
	12 (either side)	72%	1.38
	X2 (draw or Aruba)	57%	1.76
Handicap -1	Martinique win by 2+	22%	4.51
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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