Saint Martin vs El Salvador Prediction & Betting Tips 13/11/2026

Saint Martin vs El Salvador preview

In the fixture between Saint Martin and El Salvador, the 1X2 probabilities show a strong likelihood for a Saint Martin win at 90%, with a predicted scoreline of 3-0 at 11%. The model suggests an 80% chance for Over 2.5 goals, indicating a high-scoring match, while both teams to score stands at 46%, suggesting El Salvador may struggle to find the net.

El Salvador's recent form includes 4 losses in their last 6 matches, which could affect their performance. Saint Martin, on the other hand, has won 4 of their last 6 games. If El Salvador can improve their offensive output, they might challenge the expected goals of 0.63, which could impact the overall match outcome.

Saint Martin vs El Salvador: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Saint Martin	Draw	El Salvador
Model	90%	8%	3%
Market	—	—	—
Published	90%	8%	3%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.65 vs 0.63.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Saint Martin and El Salvador expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.65Saint Martin

0.63El Salvador

Total expected goals: 4.29
Attack rating (Saint Martin / El Salvador): 1.82 / 0.53
Defence rating (Saint Martin / El Salvador): 0.74 / 1.18

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Saint Martin vs El Salvador score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1 4.7% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 2 9.2% 5.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 3 11.2% 7.1% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 26.3% 16.6% 5.3% 1.1% 0.2%

Rows: Saint Martin goals. Columns: El Salvador goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Saint Martin vs El Salvador goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%

Over 1.5 93%

Over 2.5 80%

Over 3.5 62%

Both teams to score: 46%
No goals (0–0): 2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Saint Martin vs El Salvador

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Saint Martin	90%	1.11
	Draw	8%	13.20
	El Salvador	3%	37.00
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	80%	1.25
	Under 2.5	20%	5.02
Both teams to score	Yes	46%	2.18
	No	54%	1.85
Double chance	1X (Saint Martin or draw)	97%	1.03
	12 (either side)	92%	1.08
	X2 (draw or El Salvador)	10%	9.73
Handicap -1	Saint Martin win by 2+	76%	1.31
	Push (exactly one goal)	13%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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