El Salvador vs Saint Martin Prediction & Betting Tips 18/11/2026

El Salvador vs Saint Martin preview

In the match between El Salvador and Saint Martin, the 1X2 probabilities show a significant advantage for Saint Martin at 87%, compared to El Salvador's 4%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-3, occurring with an 11% chance. This suggests that Saint Martin is expected to dominate the match.

However, there are factors that could lead to a different outcome. El Salvador's expected goals are 0.68, while Saint Martin's are 3.41. The forecast indicates a 77% probability for Over 2.5 goals, but only a 48% chance for both teams to score. If El Salvador manages to improve their form, the match could be more competitive than anticipated.

El Salvador vs Saint Martin: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	El Salvador	Draw	Saint Martin
Model	4%	9%	87%
Market	—	—	—
Published	4%	9%	87%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.41 vs 0.68.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

El Salvador and Saint Martin expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.68El Salvador

3.41Saint Martin

Total expected goals: 4.09
Attack rating (El Salvador / Saint Martin): 0.53 / 1.82
Defence rating (El Salvador / Saint Martin): 1.18 / 0.74

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

El Salvador vs Saint Martin score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.1% 5.3% 9.8% 11.1% 22.5% 1 0.7% 4.3% 6.6% 7.5% 15.3% 2 0.4% 1.3% 2.2% 2.5% 5.2% 3 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 1.2% 4+ 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%

Rows: El Salvador goals. Columns: Saint Martin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

El Salvador vs Saint Martin goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%

Over 1.5 92%

Over 2.5 77%

Over 3.5 58%

Both teams to score: 48%
No goals (0–0): 2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for El Salvador vs Saint Martin

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	El Salvador	4%	27.49
	Draw	9%	10.82
	Saint Martin	87%	1.15
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	77%	1.29
	Under 2.5	23%	4.43
Both teams to score	Yes	48%	2.08
	No	52%	1.92
Double chance	1X (El Salvador or draw)	13%	7.76
	12 (either side)	91%	1.10
	X2 (draw or Saint Martin)	96%	1.04
Handicap -1	Saint Martin win by 2+	72%	1.39
	Push (exactly one goal)	15%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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