Kabwe Warriors vs Mutondo Stars preview
Kabwe Warriors face Mutondo Stars with a 46% chance of winning according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% chance. Kabwe Warriors have an expected goals figure of 1.31, while Mutondo Stars sit at 0.84.
However, the game could see different outcomes. The chances for Over 2.5 goals are at 37%, and both teams to score is at 43%. Recent form shows Kabwe Warriors with three draws and two wins in their last five matches, while Mutondo Stars have two wins and three losses. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Kabwe Warriors vs Mutondo Stars: model vs market
| Source | Kabwe Warriors | Draw | Mutondo Stars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 31% | 23% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 46% | 31% | 23% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.84.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kabwe Warriors and Mutondo Stars expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.15
- Attack rating (Kabwe Warriors / Mutondo Stars)
- 0.95 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Kabwe Warriors / Mutondo Stars)
- 1.09 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kabwe Warriors vs Mutondo Stars score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kabwe Warriors goals. Columns: Mutondo Stars goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kabwe Warriors vs Mutondo Stars goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kabwe Warriors vs Mutondo Stars
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kabwe Warriors | 46% | 2.16 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Mutondo Stars | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.33 |
| No | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kabwe Warriors or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Mutondo Stars) | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kabwe Warriors win by 2+ | 22% | 4.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kabwe Warriors and Mutondo Stars recent form
Kabwe Warriors
1W 3D 2L
Mutondo Stars
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kabwe Warriors at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Kabwe Warriors at home only, Mutondo Stars away only.
Kabwe Warriors vs Mutondo Stars head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Kabwe Warriors 2 · draws 0 · Mutondo Stars 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Kabwe Warriors | 1-0 | Mutondo Stars | Zambia Super League |
| 2025-10-19 | Mutondo Stars | 1-2 | Kabwe Warriors | Zambia Super League |
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