Nkwazi vs Chirundu Utd Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Nkwazi vs Chirundu Utd preview

Nkwazi faces Chirundu Utd in the Zambia Super League with a 1X2 probability of 47% for Nkwazi to win. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 20% of the time according to the model. Nkwazi has scored an expected 1.07 goals, while Chirundu Utd is at 0.55.

However, the prediction could be wrong if both teams score, which has a 29% chance. Nkwazi's recent form shows two losses followed by a win, while Chirundu Utd has lost their last match. The market reflects a 22% chance for Over 2.5 goals, indicating a low likelihood of a high-scoring game.

Nkwazi vs Chirundu Utd: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Nkwazi	Draw	Chirundu Utd
Model	47%	36%	17%
Market	—	—	—
Published	47%	36%	17%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.07 vs 0.55.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Nkwazi and Chirundu Utd expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.07Nkwazi

0.55Chirundu Utd

Total expected goals: 1.62
Attack rating (Nkwazi / Chirundu Utd): 0.84 / 0.83
Defence rating (Nkwazi / Chirundu Utd): 0.92 / 1.21

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nkwazi vs Chirundu Utd score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 21.0% 9.7% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1 20.1% 12.8% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 2 11.4% 6.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 3 4.1% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Nkwazi goals. Columns: Chirundu Utd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nkwazi vs Chirundu Utd goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 79%

Over 1.5 49%

Over 2.5 22%

Over 3.5 8%

Both teams to score: 29%
No goals (0–0): 21%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Nkwazi vs Chirundu Utd

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Nkwazi	47%	2.13
	Draw	36%	2.81
	Chirundu Utd	17%	5.73
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	22%	4.52
	Under 2.5	78%	1.28
Both teams to score	Yes	29%	3.47
	No	71%	1.41
Double chance	1X (Nkwazi or draw)	83%	1.21
	12 (either side)	64%	1.55
	X2 (draw or Chirundu Utd)	53%	1.89
Handicap -1	Nkwazi win by 2+	20%	5.00
	Push (exactly one goal)	27%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer