Zanaco vs Konkola Blades Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Zanaco vs Konkola Blades preview

In the Zambia Super League fixture between Zanaco and Konkola Blades, the key number is the 40% probability for a Konkola Blades win. The model suggests a likely scoreline of 0-1, which aligns with Konkola Blades' expected goals of 1.20 compared to Zanaco's 0.95.

However, the match could see different outcomes if Zanaco improves their recent form, which includes two wins and three draws in their last five matches. Both teams to score has a 44% chance, indicating that Zanaco could find the net despite their lower expected goals. The confidence grade is C, meaning these probabilities are based solely on the model.

Zanaco vs Konkola Blades: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Zanaco	Draw	Konkola Blades
Model	28%	32%	40%
Market	—	—	—
Published	28%	32%	40%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Zanaco and Konkola Blades expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.95Zanaco

1.20Konkola Blades

Total expected goals: 2.14
Attack rating (Zanaco / Konkola Blades): 0.91 / 1.28
Defence rating (Zanaco / Konkola Blades): 1.31 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Zanaco vs Konkola Blades score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.1% 12.7% 8.4% 3.3% 1.3% 1 9.8% 14.6% 7.9% 3.2% 1.2% 2 5.3% 6.3% 3.8% 1.5% 0.6% 3 1.7% 2.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: Zanaco goals. Columns: Konkola Blades goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Zanaco vs Konkola Blades goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%

Over 1.5 64%

Over 2.5 36%

Over 3.5 17%

Both teams to score: 44%
No goals (0–0): 13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Zanaco vs Konkola Blades

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Zanaco	28%	3.61
	Draw	32%	3.13
	Konkola Blades	40%	2.48
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	36%	2.76
	Under 2.5	64%	1.57
Both teams to score	Yes	44%	2.27
	No	56%	1.79
Double chance	1X (Zanaco or draw)	60%	1.68
	12 (either side)	68%	1.47
	X2 (draw or Konkola Blades)	72%	1.38
Handicap -1	Konkola Blades win by 2+	18%	5.54
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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