Red Arrows vs Mufulira Wanderers Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Red Arrows vs Mufulira Wanderers preview

Red Arrows face Mufulira Wanderers with an 82% probability of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which reflects Red Arrows' strong attacking capability, with expected goals at 2.33 compared to Mufulira's 0.33. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.

While the market suggests Over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, only 26% of matches see both teams scoring. Mufulira Wanderers have struggled recently, with four losses in their last five matches. If they can improve their form, it could challenge the expected outcome.

Red Arrows vs Mufulira Wanderers: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Red Arrows	Draw	Mufulira Wanderers
Model	82%	15%	3%
Market	—	—	—
Published	82%	15%	3%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 0.33.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Red Arrows and Mufulira Wanderers expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.33Red Arrows

0.33Mufulira Wanderers

Total expected goals: 2.65
Attack rating (Red Arrows / Mufulira Wanderers): 1.52 / 0.71
Defence rating (Red Arrows / Mufulira Wanderers): 0.65 / 1.46

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Red Arrows vs Mufulira Wanderers score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1 15.8% 5.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 2 19.0% 6.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 3 14.8% 4.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 14.8% 4.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Red Arrows goals. Columns: Mufulira Wanderers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Red Arrows vs Mufulira Wanderers goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 75%

Over 2.5 50%

Over 3.5 28%

Both teams to score: 26%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Red Arrows vs Mufulira Wanderers

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Red Arrows	82%	1.22
	Draw	15%	6.85
	Mufulira Wanderers	3%	30.19
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	50%	2.02
	Under 2.5	50%	1.98
Both teams to score	Yes	26%	3.88
	No	74%	1.35
Double chance	1X (Red Arrows or draw)	97%	1.03
	12 (either side)	85%	1.17
	X2 (draw or Mufulira Wanderers)	18%	5.58
Handicap -1	Red Arrows win by 2+	59%	1.69
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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