ZESCO United vs Green Eagles preview
ZESCO United hosts Green Eagles in the Zambia Super League with a 53% probability of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance. ZESCO United has an expected goals figure of 1.56, while Green Eagles sits at 0.84.
However, there are factors that could affect the outcome. Both teams to score has a probability of 46%, indicating a chance that neither team may find the net. ZESCO United's recent form shows mixed results with two losses in their last six matches, while Green Eagles has won three of their last six. This inconsistency could lead to surprises in the match.
ZESCO United vs Green Eagles: model vs market
| Source | ZESCO United | Draw | Green Eagles |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 0.84.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
ZESCO United and Green Eagles expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.40
- Attack rating (ZESCO United / Green Eagles)
- 1.50 / 1.26
- Defence rating (ZESCO United / Green Eagles)
- 0.94 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
ZESCO United vs Green Eagles score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: ZESCO United goals. Columns: Green Eagles goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
ZESCO United vs Green Eagles goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for ZESCO United vs Green Eagles
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ZESCO United | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Green Eagles | 19% | 5.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.17 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (ZESCO United or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Green Eagles) | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | ZESCO United win by 2+ | 29% | 3.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
ZESCO United and Green Eagles recent form
ZESCO United
3W 1D 2L
Green Eagles
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Green Eagles away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: ZESCO United at home only, Green Eagles away only.
ZESCO United vs Green Eagles head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: ZESCO United 0 · draws 1 · Green Eagles 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | Green Eagles | 1-0 | ZESCO United | Zambia Super League |
| 2025-08-30 | ZESCO United | 1-1 | Green Eagles | Zambia Super League |
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