Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 5

ASO Chlef vs MC Alger

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was MC Alger to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

17% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ASO ChlefDrawMC Alger

ASO Chlef vs MC Alger: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceASO ChlefDrawMC Alger
Model13%28%60%
Market20%31%49%
Published19%30%51%
Edge-2%-1%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.59.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices MC Alger below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

ASO Chlef vs MC Alger odds movement

Median bookmaker price on MC Alger, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.91Now 1.85 -0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
ASO Chlef4.404.40+0.00
Draw2.952.90-0.05
MC Alger1.911.85-0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

ASO Chlef and MC Alger expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.59ASO Chlef
1.54MC Alger
Total expected goals
2.13
Attack rating (ASO Chlef / MC Alger)
0.73 / 1.37
Defence rating (ASO Chlef / MC Alger)
1.27 / 0.59

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ASO Chlef vs MC Alger score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.0% 17.3% 14.1% 7.3% 4.0% 1 5.9% 11.8% 8.3% 4.3% 2.3% 2 2.0% 3.2% 2.4% 1.3% 0.7% 3 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 4+ 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: ASO Chlef goals. Columns: MC Alger goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ASO Chlef vs MC Alger goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 64%
Over 2.5 36%
Over 3.5 17%
Both teams to score
36%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ASO Chlef vs MC Alger

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2ASO Chlef19%5.39
Draw30%3.32
MC Alger51%1.95
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536%2.79
Under 2.564%1.56
Both teams to scoreYes36%2.78
No64%1.56
Double chance1X (ASO Chlef or draw)49%2.05
12 (either side)70%1.43
X2 (draw or MC Alger)81%1.23
Handicap -1MC Alger win by 2+33%3.06
Push (exactly one goal)27%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

ASO Chlef and MC Alger recent form

ASO Chlef 0W 1D 5L
MC Alger 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

ASO Chlef at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: ASO Chlef at home only, MC Alger away only.

ASO Chlef vs MC Alger head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: ASO Chlef 1 · draws 5 · MC Alger 4.

ASO ChlefDrawsMC Alger
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-05MC Alger2-0ASO ChlefAlgeria Ligue 1
2026-01-09ASO Chlef0-0MC AlgerAlgeria Ligue 1
2025-06-17ASO Chlef0-0MC AlgerLigue 1
2024-12-20MC Alger0-0ASO ChlefLigue 1
2024-03-14MC Alger6-3ASO ChlefLigue 1
2023-11-11ASO Chlef0-1MC AlgerLigue 1
2023-03-31ASO Chlef0-0MC AlgerLigue 1
2022-10-03MC Alger2-1ASO ChlefLigue 1
2022-06-05ASO Chlef1-1MC AlgerLigue 1
2022-01-29MC Alger1-2ASO ChlefLigue 1

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match