USM Alger vs JS Saoura Prediction & Betting Tips 13/10/2026

USM Alger vs JS Saoura: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	USM Alger	Draw	JS Saoura
Model	50%	29%	21%
Market	—	—	—
Published	50%	29%	21%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.86.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

USM Alger and JS Saoura expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.48USM Alger

0.86JS Saoura

Total expected goals: 2.34
Attack rating (USM Alger / JS Saoura): 1.22 / 0.99
Defence rating (USM Alger / JS Saoura): 0.97 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

USM Alger vs JS Saoura score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.8% 7.1% 3.6% 1.0% 0.3% 1 13.0% 13.5% 5.3% 1.5% 0.4% 2 10.5% 9.1% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 3 5.2% 4.5% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 2.7% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: USM Alger goals. Columns: JS Saoura goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

USM Alger vs JS Saoura goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%

Over 1.5 69%

Over 2.5 42%

Over 3.5 21%

Both teams to score: 46%
No goals (0–0): 11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for USM Alger vs JS Saoura

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	USM Alger	50%	1.99
	Draw	29%	3.47
	JS Saoura	21%	4.81
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	42%	2.41
	Under 2.5	58%	1.71
Both teams to score	Yes	46%	2.18
	No	54%	1.85
Double chance	1X (USM Alger or draw)	79%	1.26
	12 (either side)	71%	1.41
	X2 (draw or JS Saoura)	50%	2.02
Handicap -1	USM Alger win by 2+	26%	3.82
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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