Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 5

USM Alger vs JS Saoura

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was USM Alger to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
USM AlgerDrawJS Saoura

USM Alger vs JS Saoura: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUSM AlgerDrawJS Saoura
Model47%32%22%
Market60%26%14%
Published57%27%16%
Edge-3%+1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.27 vs 0.79.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

USM Alger vs JS Saoura odds movement

Median bookmaker price on USM Alger, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-13.

Opened 1.50Now 1.48 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
USM Alger1.501.48-0.02
Draw3.483.48+0.00
JS Saoura6.506.50+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

USM Alger and JS Saoura expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.27USM Alger
0.79JS Saoura
Total expected goals
2.07
Attack rating (USM Alger / JS Saoura)
1.13 / 0.91
Defence rating (USM Alger / JS Saoura)
0.99 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

USM Alger vs JS Saoura score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.9% 8.7% 4.0% 1.0% 0.2% 1 14.9% 14.1% 5.1% 1.3% 0.3% 2 10.3% 8.1% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 3 4.4% 3.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 1.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: USM Alger goals. Columns: JS Saoura goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

USM Alger vs JS Saoura goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 62%
Over 2.5 34%
Over 3.5 16%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for USM Alger vs JS Saoura

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2USM Alger57%1.75
Draw27%3.68
JS Saoura16%6.33
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.534%2.93
Under 2.566%1.52
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.46
No59%1.69
Double chance1X (USM Alger or draw)84%1.19
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or JS Saoura)43%2.33
Handicap -1USM Alger win by 2+22%4.54
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

USM Alger and JS Saoura recent form

USM Alger 2W 3D 1L
JS Saoura 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

USM Alger at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

JS Saoura away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: USM Alger at home only, JS Saoura away only.

USM Alger vs JS Saoura head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: USM Alger 3 · draws 2 · JS Saoura 5.

USM AlgerDrawsJS Saoura
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-04USM Alger1-0JS SaouraCoupe Nationale
2026-02-21USM Alger1-2JS SaouraAlgeria Ligue 1
2025-09-20JS Saoura1-0USM AlgerAlgeria Ligue 1
2025-04-26JS Saoura2-1USM AlgerLigue 1
2024-11-16USM Alger2-0JS SaouraLigue 1
2024-06-07JS Saoura2-1USM AlgerLigue 1
2024-01-11USM Alger2-1JS SaouraLigue 1
2023-06-27JS Saoura2-0USM AlgerLigue 1
2022-10-21USM Alger1-1JS SaouraLigue 1
2022-03-05USM Alger0-0JS SaouraLigue 1

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match