Olympique Akbou vs Ben Aknoun Prediction & Betting Tips 14/10/2026

Olympique Akbou vs Ben Aknoun preview

In the upcoming match between Olympique Akbou and Ben Aknoun, the 1X2 probabilities show Olympique Akbou at 40%, Ben Aknoun at 30%, and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% chance. Both teams to score stands at 52%, suggesting a competitive match, while Over 2.5 goals has a 46% probability.

Recent form indicates Olympique Akbou has struggled, with L-L-W-D-L-L in their last six matches. In contrast, Ben Aknoun has a more stable record of D-D-W-D-D-L. This could mean that if Olympique Akbou's form doesn't improve, the predicted outcome may not hold. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the forecast.

Olympique Akbou vs Ben Aknoun: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Olympique Akbou	Draw	Ben Aknoun
Model	40%	30%	30%
Market	—	—	—
Published	40%	30%	30%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Olympique Akbou and Ben Aknoun expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.32Olympique Akbou

1.12Ben Aknoun

Total expected goals: 2.44
Attack rating (Olympique Akbou / Ben Aknoun): 0.80 / 1.29
Defence rating (Olympique Akbou / Ben Aknoun): 0.98 / 1.21

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Olympique Akbou vs Ben Aknoun score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.0% 8.5% 5.5% 2.0% 0.7% 1 10.2% 14.2% 7.2% 2.7% 1.0% 2 7.6% 8.5% 4.8% 1.8% 0.6% 3 3.3% 3.7% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 1.5% 1.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Olympique Akbou goals. Columns: Ben Aknoun goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Olympique Akbou vs Ben Aknoun goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 71%

Over 2.5 44%

Over 3.5 23%

Both teams to score: 51%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Olympique Akbou vs Ben Aknoun

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Olympique Akbou	40%	2.51
	Draw	30%	3.35
	Ben Aknoun	30%	3.29
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	44%	2.27
	Under 2.5	56%	1.79
Both teams to score	Yes	51%	1.97
	No	49%	2.03
Double chance	1X (Olympique Akbou or draw)	70%	1.44
	12 (either side)	70%	1.42
	X2 (draw or Ben Aknoun)	60%	1.66
Handicap -1	Olympique Akbou win by 2+	19%	5.32
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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