ES Setif vs JS Kabylie Prediction & Betting Tips 14/10/2026

ES Setif vs JS Kabylie preview

In the Algeria Ligue 1 fixture between ES Setif and JS Kabylie, the 1X2 probabilities show ES Setif at 49%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 11%. The expected goals indicate ES Setif at 1.55 and JS Kabylie at 0.98, suggesting a tight match.

However, the 46% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score could challenge the predicted outcome. Recent form shows ES Setif winning 4 of their last 6 matches, while JS Kabylie has mixed results with 3 wins in their last 6. The confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the match dynamics.

ES Setif vs JS Kabylie: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	ES Setif	Draw	JS Kabylie
Model	49%	29%	22%
Market	—	—	—
Published	49%	29%	22%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.27 vs 0.83.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

ES Setif and JS Kabylie expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.27ES Setif

0.83JS Kabylie

Total expected goals: 2.11
Attack rating (ES Setif / JS Kabylie): 1.20 / 1.10
Defence rating (ES Setif / JS Kabylie): 0.86 / 0.78

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ES Setif vs JS Kabylie score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.5% 8.8% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 1 14.2% 14.2% 5.4% 1.5% 0.4% 2 9.9% 8.2% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 3 4.2% 3.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 1.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: ES Setif goals. Columns: JS Kabylie goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ES Setif vs JS Kabylie goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%

Over 1.5 63%

Over 2.5 35%

Over 3.5 16%

Both teams to score: 46%
No goals (0–0): 13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ES Setif vs JS Kabylie

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	ES Setif	49%	2.05
	Draw	29%	3.40
	JS Kabylie	22%	4.58
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	41%	2.46
	Under 2.5	59%	1.68
Both teams to score	Yes	46%	2.19
	No	54%	1.84
Double chance	1X (ES Setif or draw)	78%	1.28
	12 (either side)	71%	1.42
	X2 (draw or JS Kabylie)	51%	1.95
Handicap -1	ES Setif win by 2+	21%	4.66
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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