Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 6Postponed

MC Alger vs ES Setif

Alin prediction MC Alger to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MC AlgerDrawES Setif

MC Alger vs ES Setif: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMC AlgerDrawES Setif
Model64%24%13%
Market———
Published64%24%13%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.67.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

MC Alger and ES Setif expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.68MC Alger
0.67ES Setif
Total expected goals
2.35
Attack rating (MC Alger / ES Setif)
1.44 / 1.20
Defence rating (MC Alger / ES Setif)
0.63 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

MC Alger vs ES Setif score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.6% 5.3% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 1 14.9% 11.8% 3.6% 0.8% 0.2% 2 13.4% 9.0% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 3 7.5% 5.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 4.6% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: MC Alger goals. Columns: ES Setif goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

MC Alger vs ES Setif goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 42%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
45%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for MC Alger vs ES Setif

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2MC Alger64%1.57
Draw24%4.24
ES Setif13%7.77
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548%2.08
Under 2.552%1.93
Both teams to scoreYes45%2.23
No55%1.81
Double chance1X (MC Alger or draw)87%1.15
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or ES Setif)36%2.74
Handicap -1MC Alger win by 2+35%2.87
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

MC Alger and ES Setif recent form

MC Alger 3W 2D 1L
ES Setif 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

MC Alger at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

ES Setif away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: MC Alger at home only, ES Setif away only.

MC Alger vs ES Setif head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: MC Alger 1 · draws 0 · ES Setif 1.

MC AlgerDrawsES Setif
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-20ES Setif1-0MC AlgerAlgeria Ligue 1
2025-12-29MC Alger2-0ES SetifAlgeria Ligue 1

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match