Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 6Postponed

CS Constantine vs JS El Biar

Alin prediction CS Constantine to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CS ConstantineDrawJS El Biar

CS Constantine vs JS El Biar: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCS ConstantineDrawJS El Biar
Model55%22%23%
Market———
Published55%22%23%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.39.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

CS Constantine and JS El Biar expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.19CS Constantine
1.39JS El Biar
Total expected goals
3.58
Attack rating (CS Constantine / JS El Biar)
1.41 / 1.20
Defence rating (CS Constantine / JS El Biar)
1.31 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

CS Constantine vs JS El Biar score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.7% 3.0% 2.7% 1.3% 0.6% 1 5.3% 9.4% 5.9% 2.7% 1.3% 2 6.7% 9.3% 6.5% 3.0% 1.4% 3 4.9% 6.8% 4.7% 2.2% 1.0% 4+ 4.4% 6.2% 4.3% 2.0% 0.9%

Rows: CS Constantine goals. Columns: JS El Biar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

CS Constantine vs JS El Biar goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 69%
Over 3.5 48%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for CS Constantine vs JS El Biar

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2CS Constantine55%1.83
Draw22%4.50
JS El Biar23%4.30
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569%1.45
Under 2.531%3.23
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.48
No33%3.06
Double chance1X (CS Constantine or draw)77%1.30
12 (either side)78%1.29
X2 (draw or JS El Biar)45%2.20
Handicap -1CS Constantine win by 2+34%2.93
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

CS Constantine and JS El Biar recent form

CS Constantine 2W 2D 2L
JS El Biar 1W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

CS Constantine at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.50
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
2 of 2

JS El Biar away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: CS Constantine at home only, JS El Biar away only.

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match