Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 6Postponed

MC Oran vs Khenchela

Alin prediction MC Oran to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MC OranDrawKhenchela

MC Oran vs Khenchela: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMC OranDrawKhenchela
Model54%28%18%
Market———
Published54%28%18%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.72.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

MC Oran and Khenchela expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.43MC Oran
0.72Khenchela
Total expected goals
2.14
Attack rating (MC Oran / Khenchela)
1.07 / 0.95
Defence rating (MC Oran / Khenchela)
0.86 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

MC Oran vs Khenchela score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.9% 7.2% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 1 15.5% 13.2% 4.3% 1.0% 0.2% 2 11.9% 8.5% 3.1% 0.7% 0.2% 3 5.7% 4.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 2.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: MC Oran goals. Columns: Khenchela goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

MC Oran vs Khenchela goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 64%
Over 2.5 36%
Over 3.5 17%
Both teams to score
43%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for MC Oran vs Khenchela

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2MC Oran54%1.84
Draw28%3.56
Khenchela18%5.67
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541%2.47
Under 2.559%1.68
Both teams to scoreYes43%2.31
No57%1.77
Double chance1X (MC Oran or draw)82%1.21
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Khenchela)46%2.19
Handicap -1MC Oran win by 2+27%3.68
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

MC Oran and Khenchela recent form

MC Oran 3W 2D 1L
Khenchela 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

MC Oran at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
2 of 2

Khenchela away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: MC Oran at home only, Khenchela away only.

MC Oran vs Khenchela head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: MC Oran 1 · draws 0 · Khenchela 1.

MC OranDrawsKhenchela
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-06MC Oran2-1KhenchelaAlgeria Ligue 1
2025-10-04Khenchela2-0MC OranAlgeria Ligue 1

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match