Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 8

JS Kabylie vs JS El Biar

· Hocine Ait Ahmed Stadium, Tizi Ouzou

Alin prediction JS Kabylie to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
JS KabylieDrawJS El Biar
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 0.93.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

JS Kabylie vs JS El Biar preview

In the Algeria Ligue 1 fixture between JS Kabylie and JS El Biar, the 1X2 probabilities suggest a strong likelihood for JS Kabylie at 65%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 (11%). JS Kabylie has an expected goals figure of 2.19, while JS El Biar sits at 0.93.

However, JS El Biar's recent form shows some potential, with 2 wins in their last 5 matches. This could affect the outcome, especially if they manage to score, as both teams to score is at 55%. Additionally, the 60% chance for Over 2.5 goals indicates a possibility for a more open game, which could lead to different scorelines than predicted.

JS Kabylie vs JS El Biar: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceJS KabylieDrawJS El Biar
Model65%21%14%
Market———
Published65%21%14%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 0.93.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

JS Kabylie and JS El Biar expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.19JS Kabylie
0.93JS El Biar
Total expected goals
3.12
Attack rating (JS Kabylie / JS El Biar)
1.33 / 1.34
Defence rating (JS Kabylie / JS El Biar)
0.79 / 1.20

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

JS Kabylie vs JS El Biar score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 3.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 1 8.7% 9.9% 4.2% 1.3% 0.4% 2 10.5% 9.9% 4.6% 1.4% 0.4% 3 7.7% 7.2% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 7.0% 6.5% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3%

Rows: JS Kabylie goals. Columns: JS El Biar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

JS Kabylie vs JS El Biar goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for JS Kabylie vs JS El Biar

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2JS Kabylie65%1.54
Draw21%4.76
JS El Biar14%7.15
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.66
Under 2.540%2.52
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.82
No45%2.21
Double chance1X (JS Kabylie or draw)86%1.16
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or JS El Biar)35%2.86
Handicap -1JS Kabylie win by 2+42%2.36
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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JS Kabylie and JS El Biar recent form

JS Kabylie 3W 2D 1L
JS El Biar 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

JS Kabylie at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

JS El Biar away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: JS Kabylie at home only, JS El Biar away only.

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot JS Kabylie to win Predicted score 2 – 0 C Bet on JS Kabylie