Atletico Tucuman vs Argentinos JRS preview
Atletico Tucuman faces Argentinos JRS with a 30% chance of winning for the home team compared to 39% for the visitors. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs 11% of the time according to our model. Both teams to score stands at 44%, indicating a decent chance for goals from both sides.
Both teams have similar expected goals at 1.06, suggesting a close match. Atletico Tucuman's recent form shows 1 win in 6 matches, while Argentinos JRS has performed slightly better with 3 wins in their last 6. This could affect the outcome, as form may sway the match in favor of the visitors.
Atletico Tucuman vs Argentinos JRS: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Tucuman | Draw | Argentinos JRS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 32% | 34% |
| Market | 29% | 31% | 40% |
| Published | 30% | 31% | 39% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Atletico Tucuman and Argentinos JRS expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.12
- Attack rating (Atletico Tucuman / Argentinos JRS)
- 1.13 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Atletico Tucuman / Argentinos JRS)
- 1.08 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Tucuman vs Argentinos JRS score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Tucuman goals. Columns: Argentinos JRS goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Tucuman vs Argentinos JRS goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Tucuman vs Argentinos JRS
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Tucuman | 30% | 3.30 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Argentinos JRS | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.27 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Tucuman or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Argentinos JRS) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Argentinos JRS win by 2+ | 14% | 7.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Atletico Tucuman and Argentinos JRS recent form
Atletico Tucuman
1W 2D 3L
Argentinos JRS
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Tucuman at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-8-5
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 15
- They have won 6 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Argentinos JRS away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-5
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Tucuman at home only, Argentinos JRS away only.
Atletico Tucuman vs Argentinos JRS head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Atletico Tucuman 0 · draws 0 · Argentinos JRS 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Argentinos JRS | 1-0 | Atletico Tucuman | Liga Profesional Argentina |
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Before and after this match
- Atletico Tucuman, previous: Atletico Tucuman vs Platense: odds and pick
- Argentinos JRS, previous: Argentinos JRS – Independ. Rivadavia, 2026-10-27