Chacarita Juniors vs Nueva Chicago preview
In the fixture between Chacarita Juniors and Nueva Chicago, the 1X2 probabilities show Chacarita Juniors at 53% and Nueva Chicago at 13%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 22% chance according to our model. Chacarita Juniors have an expected goals figure of 1.16, while Nueva Chicago sits at 0.45, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Chacarita Juniors have fluctuated with a record of W-L-W-L-W-L, while Nueva Chicago has struggled, recording L-L-L-W-D-L. Both teams to score stands at 26%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 22%, suggesting a low-scoring match is more probable.
Chacarita Juniors vs Nueva Chicago: model vs market
| Source | Chacarita Juniors | Draw | Nueva Chicago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 34% | 12% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 55% | 34% | 12% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.17 vs 0.40.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Chacarita Juniors and Nueva Chicago expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.57
- Attack rating (Chacarita Juniors / Nueva Chicago)
- 0.93 / 0.61
- Defence rating (Chacarita Juniors / Nueva Chicago)
- 0.91 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chacarita Juniors vs Nueva Chicago score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chacarita Juniors goals. Columns: Nueva Chicago goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chacarita Juniors vs Nueva Chicago goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 24%
- No goals (0–0)
- 22%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chacarita Juniors vs Nueva Chicago
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chacarita Juniors | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Nueva Chicago | 12% | 8.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 21% | 4.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 24% | 4.18 |
| No | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chacarita Juniors or draw) | 88% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| X2 (draw or Nueva Chicago) | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chacarita Juniors win by 2+ | 25% | 3.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 29% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Chacarita Juniors and Nueva Chicago recent form
Chacarita Juniors
4W 0D 2L
Nueva Chicago
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chacarita Juniors at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-5
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 0.65
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 17
- They have won 10 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 34 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nueva Chicago away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-12
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 0.47
- Goals against / match
- 1.24
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 9 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 18 of 34 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chacarita Juniors at home only, Nueva Chicago away only.
Chacarita Juniors vs Nueva Chicago head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Chacarita Juniors 0 · draws 2 · Nueva Chicago 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Nueva Chicago | 2-0 | Chacarita Juniors | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-06-28 | Chacarita Juniors | 0-0 | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-02-24 | Nueva Chicago | 1-1 | Chacarita Juniors | Primera Nacional |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- Godoy Cruz vs Almirante Brown 2026-10-31
- Colon Santa Fe vs Defensores De Belgrano — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- San Martin S.J. vs Gimnasia Jujuy 2026-10-31
- Agropecuario v Almagro — match page 2026-10-31
- All Boys vs CA Estudiantes — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Atletico DE Rafaela vs Patronato 2026-10-31
- Deportivo Moron v Ciudad de Bolívar — match page 2026-10-31
- Los Andes vs Atletico Mitre — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Chacarita Juniors, previous: Temperley vs Chacarita Juniors prediction
- Nueva Chicago, previous: Nueva Chicago v San Martin S.J. analysis