Sturm Graz II vs SV Kapfenberg preview
In the upcoming match between Sturm Graz II and SV Kapfenberg, the 1X2 probabilities show Sturm Graz II at 50% and SV Kapfenberg at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance according to our model. Sturm Graz II has an expected goals figure of 2.30, while SV Kapfenberg sits at 1.71.
Sturm Graz II's recent form is L-D-D-W-L-L, while SV Kapfenberg has L-L-L-L-W-L. Despite the probabilities favoring Sturm Graz II, their head-to-head record is concerning, with SV Kapfenberg winning both of the last two encounters. This could potentially skew the outcome, making it a match to watch closely for surprises.
Sturm Graz II vs SV Kapfenberg: model vs market
| Source | Sturm Graz II | Draw | SV Kapfenberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 21% | 28% |
| Market | 50% | 23% | 26% |
| Published | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| Edge | 0% | -2% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.30 vs 1.71.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sturm Graz II vs SV Kapfenberg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sturm Graz II, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz II | 1.85 | 1.84 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.92 | 3.94 | +0.02 |
| SV Kapfenberg | 3.49 | 3.50 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sturm Graz II and SV Kapfenberg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.01
- Attack rating (Sturm Graz II / SV Kapfenberg)
- 1.17 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Sturm Graz II / SV Kapfenberg)
- 1.51 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sturm Graz II vs SV Kapfenberg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sturm Graz II goals. Columns: SV Kapfenberg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sturm Graz II vs SV Kapfenberg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sturm Graz II vs SV Kapfenberg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sturm Graz II | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.37 | |
| SV Kapfenberg | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.34 |
| No | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sturm Graz II or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or SV Kapfenberg) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sturm Graz II win by 2+ | 31% | 3.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sturm Graz II and SV Kapfenberg recent form
Sturm Graz II
1W 2D 3L
SV Kapfenberg
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sturm Graz II at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
SV Kapfenberg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sturm Graz II at home only, SV Kapfenberg away only.
Sturm Graz II vs SV Kapfenberg head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Sturm Graz II 0 · draws 0 · SV Kapfenberg 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | SV Kapfenberg | 2-1 | Sturm Graz II | 2. Liga |
| 2025-08-23 | Sturm Graz II | 1-2 | SV Kapfenberg | 2. Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- SKN ST. Polten vs Rapid Wien II 2026-10-16
- Austria Vienna (Am) vs WSPG Wels — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Voitsberg vs First Vienna 2026-10-16
- Wacker Innsbruck v Austria Salzburg — match page 2026-10-16
- Floridsdorfer AC v Admira Wacker — match page 2026-10-17
- Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs SKU Amstetten 2026-10-17
- FC BW Linz v FC Liefering — match page 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Sturm Graz II, previous: FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II prediction
- SV Kapfenberg, previous: SV Kapfenberg – Austria Vienna (Am), 2026-10-09