Voitsberg vs SV Kapfenberg: model vs market
| Source | Voitsberg | Draw | SV Kapfenberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 20% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 56% | 20% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 1.73.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Voitsberg vs SV Kapfenberg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Voitsberg, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voitsberg | 1.59 | 1.59 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.30 | +0.30 |
| SV Kapfenberg | 4.45 | 4.50 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Voitsberg and SV Kapfenberg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.92
- Attack rating (Voitsberg / SV Kapfenberg)
- 1.29 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Voitsberg / SV Kapfenberg)
- 1.37 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Voitsberg vs SV Kapfenberg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Voitsberg goals. Columns: SV Kapfenberg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Voitsberg vs SV Kapfenberg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Voitsberg vs SV Kapfenberg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Voitsberg | 56% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.95 | |
| SV Kapfenberg | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Voitsberg or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or SV Kapfenberg) | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Voitsberg win by 2+ | 29% | 3.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Voitsberg and SV Kapfenberg recent form
Voitsberg
2W 1D 3L
SV Kapfenberg
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Voitsberg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
SV Kapfenberg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Voitsberg at home only, SV Kapfenberg away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- FC Liefering v Austria Salzburg — match page 2026-11-06
- SKU Amstetten vs Wacker Innsbruck — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Austria Vienna (Am) vs First Vienna 2026-11-06
- Admira Wacker vs SKN ST. Polten 2026-11-06
- Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs Rapid Wien II — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- WSPG Wels vs Sturm Graz II 2026-11-07
- FC BW Linz v Floridsdorfer AC — match page 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Voitsberg, previous: Sturm Graz II v Voitsberg analysis
- SV Kapfenberg, previous: Floridsdorfer AC vs SV Kapfenberg: odds and pick