Sturm Graz II vs Voitsberg preview
Sturm Graz II faces Voitsberg with a 28% chance of winning compared to Voitsberg's 53%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, reflecting Voitsberg's expected goals of 2.65 against Sturm Graz II's 1.96.
With an 84% probability of Over 2.5 goals and an 80% chance for both teams to score, this match could see multiple goals. However, Sturm Graz II's recent form shows three losses in their last five games, which could impact their performance.
Sturm Graz II vs Voitsberg: model vs market
| Source | Sturm Graz II | Draw | Voitsberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 19% | 53% |
| Market | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Published | 33% | 23% | 43% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 1.96.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Voitsberg below our published probability: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sturm Graz II vs Voitsberg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Voitsberg, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz II | 2.61 | 2.61 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.70 | +0.00 |
| Voitsberg | 2.31 | 2.31 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sturm Graz II and Voitsberg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.61
- Attack rating (Sturm Graz II / Voitsberg)
- 0.94 / 1.44
- Defence rating (Sturm Graz II / Voitsberg)
- 1.43 / 1.38
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sturm Graz II vs Voitsberg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sturm Graz II goals. Columns: Voitsberg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sturm Graz II vs Voitsberg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 80%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sturm Graz II vs Voitsberg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sturm Graz II | 33% | 2.99 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Voitsberg | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84% | 1.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 16% | 6.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80% | 1.24 |
| No | 20% | 5.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sturm Graz II or draw) | 57% | 1.76 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Voitsberg) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Voitsberg win by 2+ | 34% | 2.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sturm Graz II and Voitsberg recent form
Sturm Graz II
1W 2D 3L
Voitsberg
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sturm Graz II at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Voitsberg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sturm Graz II at home only, Voitsberg away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- SKN ST. Polten v WSPG Wels — match page 2026-10-30
- Austria Salzburg vs SKU Amstetten — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Wacker Innsbruck vs Austria Vienna (Am) 2026-10-31
- Floridsdorfer AC v SV Kapfenberg — match page 2026-10-31
- Rapid Wien II vs FC Liefering 2026-10-31
- Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs Admira Wacker — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- First Vienna vs FC BW Linz — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Sturm Graz II, previous: Austria Vienna (Am) v Sturm Graz II analysis
- Voitsberg, previous: WSPG Wels vs Voitsberg prediction