Updated

2. Liga · Matchday 11

Wacker Innsbruck vs Austria Vienna (Am)

· Stadion Tivoli NEU, Innsbruck

Alin prediction Wacker Innsbruck to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Wacker InnsbruckDrawAustria Vienna (Am)
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Wacker Innsbruck vs Austria Vienna (Am) preview

Wacker Innsbruck faces Austria Vienna (Am) with a 39% chance of winning compared to 32% for Austria Vienna (Am) and a 29% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 9% probability. Both teams to score stands at 54%, indicating a reasonable chance for both sides to find the net.

Wacker Innsbruck's expected goals are 1.39, while Austria Vienna (Am) has 1.23. The recent form shows Wacker Innsbruck with two losses and a win in their last five matches, while Austria Vienna (Am) has three wins and one loss in the same period. A low-scoring game could challenge the prediction of Over 2.5 goals, currently at 49%.

Wacker Innsbruck vs Austria Vienna (Am): model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWacker InnsbruckDrawAustria Vienna (Am)
Model39%29%32%
Market———
Published39%29%32%
Edge———

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Wacker Innsbruck and Austria Vienna (Am) expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.39Wacker Innsbruck
1.23Austria Vienna (Am)
Total expected goals
2.62
Attack rating (Wacker Innsbruck / Austria Vienna (Am))
0.91 / 1.10
Defence rating (Wacker Innsbruck / Austria Vienna (Am))
0.87 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Wacker Innsbruck vs Austria Vienna (Am) score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.5% 7.7% 5.5% 2.3% 0.9% 1 8.8% 13.7% 7.7% 3.2% 1.3% 2 7.0% 8.6% 5.3% 2.2% 0.9% 3 3.2% 4.0% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4% 4+ 1.5% 1.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Wacker Innsbruck goals. Columns: Austria Vienna (Am) goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Wacker Innsbruck vs Austria Vienna (Am) goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 49%
Over 3.5 27%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Wacker Innsbruck vs Austria Vienna (Am)

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Wacker Innsbruck39%2.55
Draw29%3.49
Austria Vienna (Am)32%3.12
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549%2.05
Under 2.551%1.95
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.84
No46%2.19
Double chance1X (Wacker Innsbruck or draw)68%1.47
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or Austria Vienna (Am))61%1.65
Handicap -1Wacker Innsbruck win by 2+19%5.28
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Wacker Innsbruck and Austria Vienna (Am) recent form

Wacker Innsbruck 2W 2D 2L
Austria Vienna (Am) 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Wacker Innsbruck at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Austria Vienna (Am) away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Wacker Innsbruck at home only, Austria Vienna (Am) away only.

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Wacker Innsbruck to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Wacker Innsbruck