WSPG Wels vs Sturm Graz II preview
WSPG Wels faces Sturm Graz II with a 45% chance of winning compared to 31% for Sturm Graz II. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 9% of the time in our model. Both teams to score is predicted at 70%, indicating a strong likelihood of goals from both sides.
WSPG Wels has a recent form of L-W-L-D-W-L, while Sturm Graz II shows L-L-L-D-D-W. Despite WSPG Wels' better head-to-head record with 2 wins against Sturm Graz II's 0, the confidence grade is C, suggesting potential unpredictability in the match outcome.
WSPG Wels vs Sturm Graz II: model vs market
| Source | WSPG Wels | Draw | Sturm Graz II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 24% | 37% |
| Market | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Published | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
WSPG Wels vs Sturm Graz II odds movement
Median bookmaker price on WSPG Wels, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| WSPG Wels | 2.17 | 2.17 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.70 | -0.15 |
| Sturm Graz II | 2.80 | 2.81 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
WSPG Wels and Sturm Graz II expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.51
- Attack rating (WSPG Wels / Sturm Graz II)
- 0.91 / 0.99
- Defence rating (WSPG Wels / Sturm Graz II)
- 1.34 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
WSPG Wels vs Sturm Graz II score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: WSPG Wels goals. Columns: Sturm Graz II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
WSPG Wels vs Sturm Graz II goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for WSPG Wels vs Sturm Graz II
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | WSPG Wels | 41% | 2.41 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Sturm Graz II | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.14 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (WSPG Wels or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Sturm Graz II) | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | WSPG Wels win by 2+ | 21% | 4.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
WSPG Wels and Sturm Graz II recent form
WSPG Wels
2W 1D 3L
Sturm Graz II
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
WSPG Wels at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-5
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sturm Graz II away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: WSPG Wels at home only, Sturm Graz II away only.
WSPG Wels vs Sturm Graz II head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: WSPG Wels 2 · draws 0 · Sturm Graz II 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | WSPG Wels | 2-0 | Sturm Graz II | 2. Liga |
| 2025-11-22 | Sturm Graz II | 0-3 | WSPG Wels | 2. Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- FC Liefering v Austria Salzburg — match page 2026-11-06
- SKU Amstetten vs Wacker Innsbruck — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Austria Vienna (Am) vs First Vienna 2026-11-06
- Admira Wacker vs SKN ST. Polten 2026-11-06
- Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs Rapid Wien II — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- FC BW Linz v Floridsdorfer AC — match page 2026-11-07
- Voitsberg v SV Kapfenberg — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- WSPG Wels, previous: SKN ST. Polten vs WSPG Wels prediction
- Sturm Graz II, previous: Sturm Graz II v Voitsberg analysis