Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku preview
In the upcoming fixture between Qarabag and Neftchi Baku, the 1X2 probabilities show Neftchi Baku at 41%, compared to Qarabag's 30% and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 9% chance according to our model.
Both teams have shown the potential for goals, with Over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. However, recent form indicates that Qarabag has 4 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches, while Neftchi Baku has 4 wins and 2 draws as well. The confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku: model vs market
| Source | Qarabag | Draw | Neftchi Baku |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Qarabag and Neftchi Baku expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.54
- Attack rating (Qarabag / Neftchi Baku)
- 1.17 / 1.54
- Defence rating (Qarabag / Neftchi Baku)
- 0.71 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Qarabag goals. Columns: Neftchi Baku goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qarabag | 32% | 3.12 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Neftchi Baku | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| No | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Qarabag or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Neftchi Baku) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Neftchi Baku win by 2+ | 18% | 5.46 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Qarabag and Neftchi Baku recent form
Qarabag
4W 1D 1L
Neftchi Baku
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Qarabag at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Neftchi Baku away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Qarabag at home only, Neftchi Baku away only.
Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Qarabag 2 · draws 0 · Neftchi Baku 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Neftchi Baku | 2-1 | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa |
| 2026-04-26 | Neftchi Baku | 1-5 | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-11-09 | Qarabag | 2-0 | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Sumqayıt vs Araz — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Qabala v Sabah FA — match page 2026-10-17
- Turan v Imisli FK — match page 2026-10-18
- Kapaz vs Zira 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Qarabag, previous: Imisli FK v Qarabag analysis
- Neftchi Baku, previous: Neftchi Baku vs Sabah FA prediction