Liège vs Patro Eisden preview
Liège faces Patro Eisden with a 35% chance of winning compared to 39% for Patro Eisden. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% probability. Both teams have shown inconsistent form, with Liège recording two draws and three losses in their last six matches, while Patro Eisden has two wins but lost their last three games.
The expected goals are 1.73 for Liège and 1.83 for Patro Eisden, suggesting a competitive match. The model indicates a 69% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 70% probability for both teams to score. However, if Liège can improve their defensive performance, it may affect these predictions.
Liège vs Patro Eisden: model vs market
| Source | Liège | Draw | Patro Eisden |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 24% | 40% |
| Market | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Published | 35% | 26% | 38% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.48, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Liège vs Patro Eisden odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Patro Eisden, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liège | 2.59 | 2.56 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.35 | +0.00 |
| Patro Eisden | 2.37 | 2.38 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Liège and Patro Eisden expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.55
- Attack rating (Liège / Patro Eisden)
- 1.04 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Liège / Patro Eisden)
- 1.58 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Liège vs Patro Eisden score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Liège goals. Columns: Patro Eisden goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Liège vs Patro Eisden goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Liège vs Patro Eisden
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liège | 35% | 2.82 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Patro Eisden | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Liège or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Patro Eisden) | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Patro Eisden win by 2+ | 22% | 4.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Liège and Patro Eisden recent form
Liège
1W 2D 3L
Patro Eisden
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Liège at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Patro Eisden away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Liège at home only, Patro Eisden away only.
Liège vs Patro Eisden head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Liège 0 · draws 1 · Patro Eisden 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Patro Eisden | 1-1 | Liège | Challenger Pro League |
| 2025-08-30 | Liège | 0-2 | Patro Eisden | Challenger Pro League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
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- AS Eupen v Beerschot VA — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Liège, previous: RAAL La Louvière – Liège, 2026-10-17
- Patro Eisden, previous: KVC Westerlo vs Patro Eisden: odds and pick