Seraing United vs Excelsior Virton preview
In the fixture between Seraing United and Excelsior Virton, the 1X2 probabilities show Excelsior Virton at 49%, while Seraing United stands at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. The expected goals suggest Seraing United could net 1.67, while Excelsior Virton is projected to score 2.18.
The model indicates a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 73%. However, Seraing United's recent form includes two losses in their last five matches, which could impact their performance. Excelsior Virton, on the other hand, has won three of their last five, showing a stronger trend.
Seraing United vs Excelsior Virton: model vs market
| Source | Seraing United | Draw | Excelsior Virton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 23% | 50% |
| Market | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Published | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.54.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Excelsior Virton below our published probability: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.80, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Seraing United vs Excelsior Virton odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Excelsior Virton, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seraing United | 2.31 | 2.31 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.32 | 3.40 | +0.08 |
| Excelsior Virton | 2.60 | 2.62 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Seraing United and Excelsior Virton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.66
- Attack rating (Seraing United / Excelsior Virton)
- 1.05 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Seraing United / Excelsior Virton)
- 1.31 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Seraing United vs Excelsior Virton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Seraing United goals. Columns: Excelsior Virton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Seraing United vs Excelsior Virton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Seraing United vs Excelsior Virton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Seraing United | 36% | 2.77 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Excelsior Virton | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Seraing United or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Excelsior Virton) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Excelsior Virton win by 2+ | 30% | 3.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Seraing United and Excelsior Virton recent form
Seraing United
1W 1D 4L
Excelsior Virton
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Seraing United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
Excelsior Virton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Seraing United at home only, Excelsior Virton away only.
Seraing United vs Excelsior Virton head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Seraing United 0 · draws 1 · Excelsior Virton 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-03 | Seraing United | 1-1 | Excelsior Virton | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
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- RSC Anderlecht II v K. Lierse S.K. — match page 2026-10-23
- KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II 2026-10-24
- Lokeren-Temse vs KAA Gent II — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- AS Eupen v Beerschot VA — match page 2026-10-25
- Liège vs Patro Eisden 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Seraing United, previous: Zulte Waregem vs Seraing United: odds and pick
- Excelsior Virton, previous: Excelsior Virton vs Genk prediction