Antwerp vs Charleroi preview
In the Jupiler Pro League fixture between Antwerp and Charleroi, the 1X2 probabilities show Charleroi with a strong 69% chance to win, while Antwerp has just 12%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-2, which aligns with Charleroi's expected goals of 2.35 compared to Antwerp's 0.91.
Charleroi's recent form includes 5 wins and 1 loss in their last 6 matches, while Antwerp has struggled with 5 losses and 1 draw. While both teams to score has a 55% likelihood and Over 2.5 goals sits at 63%, a surprising performance from Antwerp could alter these expectations.
Antwerp vs Charleroi: model vs market
| Source | Antwerp | Draw | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13% | 22% | 65% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 13% | 22% | 65% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Antwerp and Charleroi expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.88
- Attack rating (Antwerp / Charleroi)
- 0.89 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Antwerp / Charleroi)
- 1.41 / 0.61
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Antwerp vs Charleroi score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Antwerp goals. Columns: Charleroi goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Antwerp vs Charleroi goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Antwerp vs Charleroi
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Antwerp | 13% | 7.80 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.59 | |
| Charleroi | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.02 |
| No | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Antwerp or draw) | 35% | 2.89 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Charleroi) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Charleroi win by 2+ | 42% | 2.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Antwerp and Charleroi recent form
Antwerp
1W 0D 5L
Charleroi
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Antwerp at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Charleroi away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Antwerp at home only, Charleroi away only.
Antwerp vs Charleroi head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Antwerp 0 · draws 1 · Charleroi 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Antwerp | 0-1 | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2026-04-10 | Charleroi | 2-1 | Antwerp | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2026-01-25 | Antwerp | 0-2 | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-08-17 | Charleroi | 1-1 | Antwerp | Jupiler Pro League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- OH Leuven v Lommel United — match page 2026-10-24
- KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- RAAL La Louvière vs Zulte Waregem 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Antwerp, previous: Heist – Antwerp, 2026-10-17
- Charleroi, previous: Albert Quévy-Mons vs Charleroi prediction