Genk vs Standard Liege preview
In the Jupiler Pro League fixture between Genk and Standard Liege, Genk has a 49% chance to win compared to Standard Liege's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with an expected goals tally of 1.65 for Genk and 1.09 for Standard Liege. With a 52% probability for Over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, there are indications of potential goal action.
However, the recent form shows Genk with a mixed record of W-W-L-D-D-W, while Standard Liege has won 4 of their last 6 matches. This could impact the outcome, as Standard Liege's recent success may challenge Genk's home advantage. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Genk vs Standard Liege: model vs market
| Source | Genk | Draw | Standard Liege |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Published | 52% | 25% | 22% |
| Edge | -4% | +2% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 1.09.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Genk vs Standard Liege odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Genk, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genk | 1.75 | 1.75 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.76 | 3.76 | +0.00 |
| Standard Liege | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Genk and Standard Liege expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.74
- Attack rating (Genk / Standard Liege)
- 1.19 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Genk / Standard Liege)
- 0.80 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Genk vs Standard Liege score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Genk goals. Columns: Standard Liege goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Genk vs Standard Liege goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Genk vs Standard Liege
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Genk | 52% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Standard Liege | 22% | 4.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Genk or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Standard Liege) | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | Genk win by 2+ | 27% | 3.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Genk and Standard Liege recent form
Genk
3W 2D 1L
Standard Liege
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Genk at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Standard Liege away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Genk at home only, Standard Liege away only.
Genk vs Standard Liege head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Genk 1 · draws 2 · Standard Liege 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Standard Liege | 0-0 | Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2026-04-25 | Genk | 1-1 | Standard Liege | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2026-02-22 | Genk | 0-3 | Standard Liege | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-08-10 | Standard Liege | 2-1 | Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2024-12-04 | Genk | 2-1 | Standard Liege | Belgium Cup |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Antwerp vs Charleroi 2026-10-24
- OH Leuven v Lommel United — match page 2026-10-24
- KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- RAAL La Louvière vs Zulte Waregem 2026-10-24
- Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden 2026-10-25
- Gent v Anderlecht — match page 2026-10-25
- Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Genk, previous: Excelsior Virton vs Genk prediction
- Standard Liege, previous: Standard Liege v Dender analysis