Gent vs Anderlecht preview
Gent faces Anderlecht with a 40% chance to win compared to Anderlecht's 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% probability. Gent's expected goals stand at 1.38, while Anderlecht's is lower at 0.83. This suggests Gent may have the edge in creating scoring opportunities.
However, Gent's recent form shows 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, while Anderlecht has 3 wins and 2 losses. The head-to-head record favors Anderlecht with 3 wins in the last 5 encounters. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals are at 38%, and both teams to score is at 43%, indicating a potential for a low-scoring match.
Gent vs Anderlecht: model vs market
| Source | Gent | Draw | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 30% | 21% |
| Market | 38% | 31% | 32% |
| Published | 40% | 31% | 29% |
| Edge | +11% | 0% | -10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Gent below the model: +10.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.57, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Gent vs Anderlecht odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gent, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gent | 2.49 | 2.49 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.06 | 3.06 | +0.00 |
| Anderlecht | 2.96 | 2.96 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gent and Anderlecht expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.21
- Attack rating (Gent / Anderlecht)
- 1.21 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Gent / Anderlecht)
- 0.69 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gent vs Anderlecht score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gent goals. Columns: Anderlecht goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gent vs Anderlecht goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gent vs Anderlecht
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gent | 40% | 2.48 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.28 | |
| Anderlecht | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.30 |
| No | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gent or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Anderlecht) | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gent win by 2+ | 24% | 4.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gent and Anderlecht recent form
Gent
4W 2D 0L
Anderlecht
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gent at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Anderlecht away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gent at home only, Anderlecht away only.
Gent vs Anderlecht head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Gent 1 · draws 1 · Anderlecht 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Gent | 1-1 | Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2026-04-12 | Anderlecht | 3-1 | Gent | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2026-01-18 | Gent | 4-2 | Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2026-01-15 | Anderlecht | 1-0 | Gent | Belgium Cup |
| 2025-09-23 | Anderlecht | 1-0 | Gent | Jupiler Pro League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Antwerp vs Charleroi 2026-10-24
- OH Leuven v Lommel United — match page 2026-10-24
- KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- RAAL La Louvière vs Zulte Waregem 2026-10-24
- Genk v Standard Liege — match page 2026-10-25
- Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden 2026-10-25
- Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Gent, previous: SC Braga – Gent, 2026-10-22
- Gent, next: KuPS v Gent analysis
- Anderlecht, previous: Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht: odds and pick
- Anderlecht, next: Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg: odds and pick