OH Leuven vs Lommel United preview
In the upcoming match between OH Leuven and Lommel United, the 1X2 probabilities show Lommel United at 46%, making them the favorites. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 13% chance. OH Leuven has an expected goals figure of 0.90, while Lommel United sits at 1.34, indicating a potential struggle for the home side to find the net.
While both teams to score has a probability of 45% and Over 2.5 goals stands at 39%, the recent form could influence the outcome. OH Leuven's last five matches include two wins and three losses, while Lommel United has three wins and two losses. A surprising performance from OH Leuven could challenge the expected result.
OH Leuven vs Lommel United: model vs market
| Source | OH Leuven | Draw | Lommel United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
OH Leuven and Lommel United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.43
- Attack rating (OH Leuven / Lommel United)
- 0.77 / 1.02
- Defence rating (OH Leuven / Lommel United)
- 1.00 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
OH Leuven vs Lommel United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: OH Leuven goals. Columns: Lommel United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
OH Leuven vs Lommel United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for OH Leuven vs Lommel United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | OH Leuven | 32% | 3.12 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Lommel United | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.98 |
| No | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (OH Leuven or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Lommel United) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lommel United win by 2+ | 17% | 5.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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OH Leuven and Lommel United recent form
OH Leuven
2W 2D 2L
Lommel United
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
OH Leuven at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lommel United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: OH Leuven at home only, Lommel United away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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- Antwerp vs Charleroi 2026-10-24
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- RAAL La Louvière vs Zulte Waregem 2026-10-24
- Genk v Standard Liege — match page 2026-10-25
- Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden 2026-10-25
- Gent v Anderlecht — match page 2026-10-25
- Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- OH Leuven, previous: OH Leuven vs Francs Borains: odds and pick
- Lommel United, previous: St. Truiden v Lommel United analysis