Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge preview
In the upcoming match between Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge, the 1X2 probabilities show Union St. Gilloise at 74% to win, while Cercle Brugge sits at just 10%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 3-0, supported by expected goals of 3.08 for Union St. Gilloise and only 0.80 for Cercle Brugge.
However, the model indicates that there is a 53% chance for both teams to score, which could challenge the predicted outcome. Union St. Gilloise's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Cercle Brugge has struggled with 5 losses in their last 6. This discrepancy in form could influence the match's dynamics.
Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge: model vs market
| Source | Union St. Gilloise | Draw | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| Market | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| Published | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| Edge | +10% | -5% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.08 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Union St. Gilloise below the model: +9.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.32, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Union St. Gilloise, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | 1.30 | 1.30 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.50 | 5.50 | +0.00 |
| Cercle Brugge | 8.25 | 8.25 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.88
- Attack rating (Union St. Gilloise / Cercle Brugge)
- 1.61 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Union St. Gilloise / Cercle Brugge)
- 0.61 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Union St. Gilloise goals. Columns: Cercle Brugge goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union St. Gilloise | 74% | 1.35 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.33 | |
| Cercle Brugge | 10% | 10.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Union St. Gilloise or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Cercle Brugge) | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | Union St. Gilloise win by 2+ | 64% | 1.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge recent form
Union St. Gilloise
4W 2D 0L
Cercle Brugge
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Union St. Gilloise at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 2.7 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Cercle Brugge away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Union St. Gilloise at home only, Cercle Brugge away only.
Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Union St. Gilloise 1 · draws 1 · Cercle Brugge 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | Cercle Brugge | 1-1 | Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-11-22 | Union St. Gilloise | 2-0 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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- RAAL La Louvière vs Zulte Waregem 2026-10-24
- Genk v Standard Liege — match page 2026-10-25
- Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden 2026-10-25
- Gent v Anderlecht — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Union St. Gilloise, previous: Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction
- Union St. Gilloise, next: Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise prediction
- Cercle Brugge, previous: Sporting Hasselt – Cercle Brugge, 2026-10-16