Réal Bamako vs ES Zarzis Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Réal Bamako vs ES Zarzis preview

In the CAF Confederation Cup fixture between Réal Bamako and ES Zarzis, the 1X2 probabilities show Réal Bamako at 40%, a draw at 35%, and ES Zarzis at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 15% chance of occurring.

Réal Bamako's expected goals stand at 1.06, while ES Zarzis has a lower figure of 0.78. This suggests that Réal Bamako may have the edge offensively. However, the chances of Over 2.5 goals are only 28%, and both teams to score is at 37%, indicating that a low-scoring match is more probable.

Réal Bamako vs ES Zarzis: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Réal Bamako	Draw	ES Zarzis
Model	40%	35%	25%
Market	—	—	—
Published	40%	35%	25%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Réal Bamako and ES Zarzis expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.06Réal Bamako

0.78ES Zarzis

Total expected goals: 1.84
Attack rating (Réal Bamako / ES Zarzis): 0.95 / 1.03
Defence rating (Réal Bamako / ES Zarzis): 0.83 / 0.78

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Réal Bamako vs ES Zarzis score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 17.2% 11.1% 4.9% 1.3% 0.3% 1 15.5% 14.5% 5.1% 1.3% 0.3% 2 8.9% 6.9% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 3 3.1% 2.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 4+ 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Réal Bamako goals. Columns: ES Zarzis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Réal Bamako vs ES Zarzis goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 83%

Over 1.5 56%

Over 2.5 28%

Over 3.5 11%

Both teams to score: 37%
No goals (0–0): 17%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Réal Bamako vs ES Zarzis

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Réal Bamako	40%	2.50
	Draw	35%	2.88
	ES Zarzis	25%	3.95
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	28%	3.58
	Under 2.5	72%	1.39
Both teams to score	Yes	37%	2.73
	No	63%	1.58
Double chance	1X (Réal Bamako or draw)	75%	1.34
	12 (either side)	65%	1.53
	X2 (draw or ES Zarzis)	60%	1.67
Handicap -1	Réal Bamako win by 2+	17%	6.02
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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