Raja Casablanca vs El Kanemi Warriors Prediction & Betting Tips 23/10/2026

Raja Casablanca vs El Kanemi Warriors preview

In the CAF Confederation Cup fixture between Raja Casablanca and El Kanemi Warriors, the 1X2 probabilities show a strong advantage for Raja Casablanca at 69%, compared to El Kanemi Warriors at just 8%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 19% chance according to our model. Raja's expected goals stand at 1.76, while El Kanemi's is only 0.44, indicating a significant disparity in attacking strength.

However, the match could deviate from this prediction if El Kanemi Warriors manage to improve their recent form, which includes 4 losses in their last 6 matches. Additionally, with only a 31% chance for both teams to score and 38% for Over 2.5 goals, any unexpected performance could alter the expected outcome.

Raja Casablanca vs El Kanemi Warriors: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Raja Casablanca	Draw	El Kanemi Warriors
Model	68%	24%	8%
Market	—	—	—
Published	68%	24%	8%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 0.47.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Raja Casablanca and El Kanemi Warriors expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.73Raja Casablanca

0.47El Kanemi Warriors

Total expected goals: 2.20
Attack rating (Raja Casablanca / El Kanemi Warriors): 1.02 / 0.69
Defence rating (Raja Casablanca / El Kanemi Warriors): 0.74 / 1.20

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Raja Casablanca vs El Kanemi Warriors score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.0% 4.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 1 18.3% 9.9% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 2 16.6% 7.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 3 9.6% 4.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 6.2% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Raja Casablanca goals. Columns: El Kanemi Warriors goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Raja Casablanca vs El Kanemi Warriors goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 65%

Over 2.5 38%

Over 3.5 18%

Both teams to score: 32%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Raja Casablanca vs El Kanemi Warriors

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Raja Casablanca	68%	1.48
	Draw	24%	4.20
	El Kanemi Warriors	8%	11.78
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	38%	2.65
	Under 2.5	62%	1.61
Both teams to score	Yes	32%	3.17
	No	68%	1.46
Double chance	1X (Raja Casablanca or draw)	92%	1.09
	12 (either side)	76%	1.31
	X2 (draw or El Kanemi Warriors)	32%	3.09
Handicap -1	Raja Casablanca win by 2+	40%	2.47
	Push (exactly one goal)	27%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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