HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec preview
HFX Wanderers FC faces Supra du Quebec with a 42% chance to win compared to 35% for the visitors. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with an 8% probability. Both teams have shown strong attacking potential, as indicated by the expected goals of 1.95 for HFX Wanderers FC and 1.79 for Supra du Quebec.
However, recent form could influence the outcome. HFX Wanderers FC has 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Supra du Quebec has 4 wins in the same period. Additionally, both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 72%, suggesting a high likelihood of an exciting match. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec: model vs market
| Source | HFX Wanderers FC | Draw | Supra du Quebec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 23% | 35% |
| Market | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| Published | 30% | 24% | 46% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -4% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Supra du Quebec, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| HFX Wanderers FC | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.70 | +0.00 |
| Supra du Quebec | 1.85 | 1.85 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
HFX Wanderers FC and Supra du Quebec expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.74
- Attack rating (HFX Wanderers FC / Supra du Quebec)
- 1.12 / 1.17
- Defence rating (HFX Wanderers FC / Supra du Quebec)
- 1.15 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: HFX Wanderers FC goals. Columns: Supra du Quebec goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HFX Wanderers FC | 30% | 3.34 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Supra du Quebec | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.38 |
| No | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (HFX Wanderers FC or draw) | 54% | 1.84 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Supra du Quebec) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Supra du Quebec win by 2+ | 19% | 5.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
HFX Wanderers FC and Supra du Quebec recent form
HFX Wanderers FC
2W 2D 2L
Supra du Quebec
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
HFX Wanderers FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-5
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 7 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Supra du Quebec away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-6
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.69
- Goals against / match
- 2.15
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: HFX Wanderers FC at home only, Supra du Quebec away only.
HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: HFX Wanderers FC 1 · draws 0 · Supra du Quebec 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Supra du Quebec | 0-2 | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-07-24 | HFX Wanderers FC | 2-3 | Supra du Quebec | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-04-24 | Supra du Quebec | 2-1 | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League |
Other Group Stage fixtures
- HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC — team news & stats 2026-10-12
- Supra du Quebec vs York United 2026-10-16
- Vancouver FC v HFX Wanderers FC — match page 2026-10-17
- Atlético Ottawa vs Forge — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC 2026-10-17
- Cavalry FC v Vancouver FC — match page 2026-10-25
- Pacific FC vs Forge 2026-10-25
- York United v Atlético Ottawa — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- HFX Wanderers FC, previous: Vancouver FC v HFX Wanderers FC analysis
- Supra du Quebec, previous: Supra du Quebec – York United, 2026-10-16