Updated

Cyprus 1. Division · Matchday 7

AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia

· AEK Arena, Larnaca· Referee Menelaos Antoniou

Alin prediction Omonia Nicosia to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AEK LarnacaDrawOmonia Nicosia
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Omonia Nicosia is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
AEK Larnaca3.60 Draw3.50 Omonia Nicosia2.05

Price as of

Expected return at 2.05: -13.3% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 9 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia preview

In the fixture between AEK Larnaca and Omonia Nicosia, the 1X2 probabilities show Omonia Nicosia at 44%, AEK Larnaca at 29%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% probability. Both teams to score stands at 58%, while Over 2.5 goals is predicted at 53%.

AEK Larnaca's recent form is D-W-W-L-W-W, while Omonia Nicosia has a stronger record of L-D-W-W-W-W. The expected goals are 1.50 for AEK Larnaca and 1.32 for Omonia Nicosia. AEK Larnaca has not won any of the last 4 head-to-head matches, with Omonia Nicosia winning 2 and drawing 2. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions.

AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAEK LarnacaDrawOmonia Nicosia
Model41%27%32%
Market27%27%46%
Published30%27%42%
Edge+3%0%-3%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Omonia Nicosia, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 2.56Now 2.03 -0.53
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
AEK Larnaca2.563.44+0.88
Draw3.293.40+0.11
Omonia Nicosia2.562.03-0.53

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

AEK Larnaca and Omonia Nicosia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.50AEK Larnaca
1.31Omonia Nicosia
Total expected goals
2.82
Attack rating (AEK Larnaca / Omonia Nicosia)
1.20 / 1.30
Defence rating (AEK Larnaca / Omonia Nicosia)
0.83 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 6.7% 5.2% 2.3% 1.0% 1 7.8% 13.0% 7.8% 3.4% 1.5% 2 6.7% 8.9% 5.8% 2.6% 1.1% 3 3.4% 4.4% 2.9% 1.3% 0.6% 4+ 1.8% 2.3% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: AEK Larnaca goals. Columns: Omonia Nicosia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2AEK Larnaca30%3.29
Draw27%3.66
Omonia Nicosia42%2.36
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.87
Under 2.547%2.15
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.72
No42%2.38
Double chance1X (AEK Larnaca or draw)58%1.73
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Omonia Nicosia)70%1.44
Handicap -1Omonia Nicosia win by 2+15%6.86
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites
# Betting site Welcome offer Why it is here Visit
1 Mozzartbet 50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.
  • M-PESA Paybill 290059
  • Daily Jackpot
  • Live betting
 Get offer
2 Betwinner First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.
  • 1,000+ events every day
  • Live betting around the clock
  • 30+ markets on live events
 Get offer
3 22Bet 100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.
  • M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits
  • Live in-play betting
  • Android and iOS app
 Get offer
4 Melbet 200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.
  • 1,000+ events every day
  • 30+ markets on live events
  • 24/7 customer support
 Get offer

18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.

AEK Larnaca and Omonia Nicosia recent form

AEK Larnaca 4W 1D 1L
Omonia Nicosia 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

AEK Larnaca at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.

Omonia Nicosia away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: AEK Larnaca at home only, Omonia Nicosia away only.

AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: AEK Larnaca 1 · draws 5 · Omonia Nicosia 4.

AEK LarnacaDrawsOmonia Nicosia
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Omonia Nicosia1-1AEK LarnacaCyprus 1. Division
2026-04-14AEK Larnaca0-2Omonia NicosiaCyprus 1. Division
2026-01-14Omonia Nicosia2-1AEK LarnacaCup
2025-12-15AEK Larnaca1-1Omonia NicosiaCyprus 1. Division
2025-09-17Omonia Nicosia1-0AEK LarnacaCyprus 1. Division
2025-05-07AEK Larnaca2-1Omonia NicosiaCup
2025-04-30Omonia Nicosia0-0AEK LarnacaCup
2025-04-22AEK Larnaca1-1Omonia Nicosia1. Division
2025-03-16Omonia Nicosia1-1AEK Larnaca1. Division
2025-01-03AEK Larnaca0-3Omonia Nicosia1. Division

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Omonia Nicosia to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on Omonia Nicosia
Our pick: Omonia Nicosia to win 18+ Bet Now