Nea Salamis vs Pafos Prediction & Betting Tips 26/10/2026

Nea Salamis vs Pafos preview

In the fixture between Nea Salamis and Pafos, the 1X2 probabilities show Nea Salamis at 18%, a draw at 21%, and Pafos at 61%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Pafos's expected goals of 1.99 compared to Nea Salamis's 1.65.

Pafos comes into this match with better recent form, recording 3 wins in their last 5 games, while Nea Salamis has only 1 win in the same period. However, the prediction could be affected if Nea Salamis improves their performance, as both teams to score is at 71% and Over 2.5 goals is at 70%.

Nea Salamis vs Pafos: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Nea Salamis	Draw	Pafos
Model	32%	23%	45%
Market	13%	21%	66%
Published	18%	21%	61%
Edge	+19%	+2%	-21%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.65.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded 2026-10-19 — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.

Nea Salamis and Pafos expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.65Nea Salamis

1.99Pafos

Total expected goals: 3.64
Attack rating (Nea Salamis / Pafos): 1.19 / 1.12
Defence rating (Nea Salamis / Pafos): 1.46 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nea Salamis vs Pafos score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.5% 4.4% 5.2% 3.5% 2.7% 1 3.5% 9.5% 8.6% 5.7% 4.5% 2 3.6% 7.1% 7.1% 4.7% 3.7% 3 2.0% 3.9% 3.9% 2.6% 2.0% 4+ 1.2% 2.3% 2.3% 1.5% 1.2%

Rows: Nea Salamis goals. Columns: Pafos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nea Salamis vs Pafos goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 89%

Over 2.5 70%

Over 3.5 49%

Both teams to score: 71%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Nea Salamis vs Pafos

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Nea Salamis	18%	5.69
	Draw	21%	4.66
	Pafos	61%	1.64
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	70%	1.42
	Under 2.5	30%	3.39
Both teams to score	Yes	71%	1.42
	No	29%	3.41
Double chance	1X (Nea Salamis or draw)	39%	2.56
	12 (either side)	79%	1.27
	X2 (draw or Pafos)	82%	1.21
Handicap -1	Pafos win by 2+	26%	3.83
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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