AEL vs Aris Prediction & Betting Tips 25/10/2026

AEL vs Aris preview

AEL faces Aris with a 55% chance of winning, while Aris has only a 21% probability. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with AEL's expected goals of 1.87 compared to Aris's 1.07. AEL's recent form shows 4 wins out of 6 matches, while Aris has only 2 wins in their last 6 games.

While AEL appears strong, the match could swing if Aris manages to convert their chances, as both teams to score is at 57%. Additionally, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. The potential for Over 2.5 goals stands at 56%, suggesting a possibility for a high-scoring game.

AEL vs Aris: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	AEL	Draw	Aris
Model	55%	25%	21%
Market	35%	28%	37%
Published	40%	27%	33%
Edge	+19%	-3%	-16%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.07.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices AEL below the model: +19.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.67, recorded 2026-10-19 — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.

AEL and Aris expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.87AEL

1.07Aris

Total expected goals: 2.94
Attack rating (AEL / Aris): 1.12 / 0.93
Defence rating (AEL / Aris): 0.95 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AEL vs Aris score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 4.6% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4% 1 8.8% 11.7% 5.7% 2.0% 0.7% 2 9.2% 9.9% 5.3% 1.9% 0.6% 3 5.7% 6.1% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 4+ 4.1% 4.4% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: AEL goals. Columns: Aris goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AEL vs Aris goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 56%

Over 3.5 34%

Both teams to score: 57%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AEL vs Aris

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	AEL	40%	2.48
	Draw	27%	3.67
	Aris	33%	3.07
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	56%	1.78
	Under 2.5	44%	2.29
Both teams to score	Yes	57%	1.76
	No	43%	2.31
Double chance	1X (AEL or draw)	67%	1.48
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Aris)	60%	1.67
Handicap -1	AEL win by 2+	32%	3.10
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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