Karmiotissa vs Apollon Limassol preview
In the match between Karmiotissa and Apollon Limassol, the 1X2 probabilities show Apollon Limassol at 62%, while Karmiotissa stands at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Apollon Limassol's expected goals of 2.24 compared to Karmiotissa's 1.11.
The forecast suggests a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 61%. However, Karmiotissa's recent form, with 5 matches resulting in 4 losses and only 1 draw, could impact their performance negatively. Apollon Limassol's recent form is stronger, with 3 wins and 3 draws in their last 6 matches, which may support their chances of winning.
Karmiotissa vs Apollon Limassol: model vs market
| Source | Karmiotissa | Draw | Apollon Limassol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 21% | 62% |
| Market | 12% | 21% | 67% |
| Published | 13% | 21% | 66% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.
Karmiotissa and Apollon Limassol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.36
- Attack rating (Karmiotissa / Apollon Limassol)
- 0.72 / 1.55
- Defence rating (Karmiotissa / Apollon Limassol)
- 1.19 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Karmiotissa vs Apollon Limassol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Karmiotissa goals. Columns: Apollon Limassol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Karmiotissa vs Apollon Limassol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Karmiotissa vs Apollon Limassol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Karmiotissa | 13% | 7.49 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.76 | |
| Apollon Limassol | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Karmiotissa or draw) | 34% | 2.91 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Apollon Limassol) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Apollon Limassol win by 2+ | 41% | 2.46 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Karmiotissa and Apollon Limassol recent form
Karmiotissa
0W 3D 3L
Apollon Limassol
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Karmiotissa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Apollon Limassol away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Karmiotissa at home only, Apollon Limassol away only.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Olympiakos vs Krasava Ypsonas 2026-10-24
- Anorthosis vs Omonia Aradippou — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Apoel Nicosia v Omonia 29is Maiou — match page 2026-10-25
- AEL vs Aris 2026-10-25
- Nea Salamis v Pafos — match page 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Karmiotissa, previous: Krasava Ypsonas – Karmiotissa, 2026-10-17
- Apollon Limassol, previous: Apollon Limassol vs Nea Salamis prediction