Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec preview
In the match between Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec, the 1X2 probabilities show Hradec Králové at 40% to win, while FK Jablonec is at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Hradec Králové, which has a 9% probability.
Hradec Králové has an expected goals figure of 1.08, while FK Jablonec is slightly higher at 1.25. Both teams to score has a probability of 48%, indicating a close contest. Recent form shows Hradec Králové with 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while FK Jablonec also has 2 wins but with a more inconsistent run. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec: model vs market
| Source | Hradec Králové | Draw | FK Jablonec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 31% | 39% |
| Market | 43% | 31% | 26% |
| Published | 40% | 31% | 29% |
| Edge | -12% | -1% | +13% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.
Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hradec Králové, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hradec Králové | 2.17 | 2.17 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 2.94 | 2.94 | +0.00 |
| FK Jablonec | 3.55 | 3.55 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.33
- Attack rating (Hradec Králové / FK Jablonec)
- 0.75 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Hradec Králové / FK Jablonec)
- 1.02 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hradec Králové goals. Columns: FK Jablonec goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hradec Králové | 40% | 2.53 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 | |
| FK Jablonec | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hradec Králové or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or FK Jablonec) | 60% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hradec Králové win by 2+ | 12% | 8.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec recent form
Hradec Králové
2W 2D 2L
FK Jablonec
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hradec Králové at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FK Jablonec away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hradec Králové at home only, FK Jablonec away only.
Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Hradec Králové 1 · draws 1 · FK Jablonec 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | FK Jablonec | 1-1 | Hradec Králové | Czech Liga |
| 2025-11-29 | Hradec Králové | 2-0 | FK Jablonec | Czech Liga |
| 2025-08-02 | FK Jablonec | 2-0 | Hradec Králové | Czech Liga |
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Before and after this match
- Hradec Králové, previous: Slavia Praha v Hradec Králové analysis
- FK Jablonec, previous: FK Jablonec vs Brighton: odds and pick
- FK Jablonec, next: Riga vs FK Jablonec prediction