Sparta Praha vs Slovácko preview
In the match between Sparta Praha and Slovácko, the 1X2 probabilities show a strong edge for Sparta Praha at 61%, while Slovácko stands at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 12% chance according to our model. Sparta Praha's expected goals are 1.88 compared to Slovácko's 0.84, indicating a significant offensive advantage.
However, the recent form suggests potential unpredictability. Sparta Praha has drawn twice and won four times in their last six matches, while Slovácko has a mixed record with one win, two draws, and three losses. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals sit at 51%, and both teams to score is at 49%, pointing to a match that could be tighter than the stats suggest.
Sparta Praha vs Slovácko: model vs market
| Source | Sparta Praha | Draw | Slovácko |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 24% | 15% |
| Market | 72% | 18% | 11% |
| Published | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| Edge | -11% | +6% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.30, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sparta Praha vs Slovácko odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sparta Praha, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Praha | 1.29 | 1.29 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.25 | 5.25 | +0.00 |
| Slovácko | 8.53 | 8.53 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sparta Praha and Slovácko expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (Sparta Praha / Slovácko)
- 1.24 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Sparta Praha / Slovácko)
- 0.77 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sparta Praha vs Slovácko score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sparta Praha goals. Columns: Slovácko goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sparta Praha vs Slovácko goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sparta Praha vs Slovácko
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sparta Praha | 69% | 1.45 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.21 | |
| Slovácko | 12% | 8.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.04 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sparta Praha or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Slovácko) | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sparta Praha win by 2+ | 37% | 2.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Sparta Praha and Slovácko recent form
Sparta Praha
4W 2D 0L
Slovácko
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sparta Praha at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Slovácko away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sparta Praha at home only, Slovácko away only.
Sparta Praha vs Slovácko head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Sparta Praha 1 · draws 1 · Slovácko 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Sparta Praha | 5-2 | Slovácko | Czech Liga |
| 2025-10-19 | Slovácko | 0-0 | Sparta Praha | Czech Liga |
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Before and after this match
- Sparta Praha, previous: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha prediction
- Sparta Praha, next: Sparta Praha – Bournemouth, 2026-11-05
- Slovácko, previous: Slovácko vs Zbrojovka Brno: odds and pick