Plzen vs Pardubice preview
In the Czech Liga fixture between Plzen and Pardubice, the 1X2 probabilities show Plzen at 59% to win, while Pardubice sits at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Plzen's expected goals are 1.84, compared to Pardubice's 1.50, indicating a competitive match.
However, the recent form could affect the outcome. Plzen has recorded a W-L-W-L-L-L streak, while Pardubice has a better recent record with W-L-W-W-D-L. Additionally, both teams to score has a 66% chance, and Over 2.5 goals is at 65%, suggesting potential for an exciting game.
Plzen vs Pardubice: model vs market
| Source | Plzen | Draw | Pardubice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Market | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Published | 59% | 22% | 20% |
| Edge | -18% | +4% | +14% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.50.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.
Plzen vs Pardubice odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Plzen, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plzen | 1.48 | 1.48 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.00 |
| Pardubice | 5.72 | 5.72 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Plzen and Pardubice expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.34
- Attack rating (Plzen / Pardubice)
- 1.31 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Plzen / Pardubice)
- 1.24 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Plzen vs Pardubice score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Plzen goals. Columns: Pardubice goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Plzen vs Pardubice goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Plzen vs Pardubice
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plzen | 59% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.62 | |
| Pardubice | 20% | 5.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Plzen or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Pardubice) | 41% | 2.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Plzen win by 2+ | 25% | 3.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Plzen and Pardubice recent form
Plzen
2W 0D 4L
Pardubice
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Plzen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Pardubice away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Plzen at home only, Pardubice away only.
Plzen vs Pardubice head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Plzen 1 · draws 0 · Pardubice 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Plzen | 0-1 | Pardubice | Czech Liga |
| 2025-07-18 | Pardubice | 1-5 | Plzen | Czech Liga |
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Before and after this match
- Plzen, previous: Plzen vs Levski Sofia: odds and pick
- Plzen, next: Lillestrom vs Plzen: odds and pick
- Pardubice, previous: Pardubice vs Zlin prediction