Updated

FNL · Matchday 13

Viktoria Žižkov vs Dukla Praha

· Stadium Viktoria Zizkov, Prague

Alin prediction Dukla Praha to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Viktoria ŽižkovDrawDukla Praha
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Viktoria Žižkov vs Dukla Praha preview

In the match between Viktoria Žižkov and Dukla Praha, the 1X2 probabilities show Viktoria Žižkov at 36% and Dukla Praha at 39%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Both teams to score stands at 67%, while Over 2.5 goals has a strong likelihood of 65%.

Viktoria Žižkov has an expected goals figure of 1.63, while Dukla Praha is slightly higher at 1.71. Recent form indicates Viktoria Žižkov has 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, while Dukla Praha has 4 wins and 1 draw. The confidence grade for this match is C, which suggests uncertainty in the predictions.

Viktoria Žižkov vs Dukla Praha: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceViktoria ŽižkovDrawDukla Praha
Model36%25%39%
Market———
Published36%25%39%
Edge———

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Viktoria Žižkov and Dukla Praha expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.63Viktoria Žižkov
1.71Dukla Praha
Total expected goals
3.34
Attack rating (Viktoria Žižkov / Dukla Praha)
0.90 / 1.13
Defence rating (Viktoria Žižkov / Dukla Praha)
1.22 / 1.17

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Viktoria Žižkov vs Dukla Praha score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.5% 5.1% 5.2% 3.0% 1.9% 1 4.8% 10.9% 8.5% 4.8% 3.0% 2 4.7% 8.0% 6.9% 3.9% 2.5% 3 2.6% 4.4% 3.7% 2.1% 1.3% 4+ 1.5% 2.6% 2.2% 1.2% 0.8%

Rows: Viktoria Žižkov goals. Columns: Dukla Praha goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Viktoria Žižkov vs Dukla Praha goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 65%
Over 3.5 43%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Viktoria Žižkov vs Dukla Praha

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Viktoria Žižkov36%2.79
Draw25%4.03
Dukla Praha39%2.54
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565%1.54
Under 2.535%2.84
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.50
No33%3.01
Double chance1X (Viktoria Žižkov or draw)61%1.65
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Dukla Praha)64%1.56
Handicap -1Dukla Praha win by 2+21%4.81
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Viktoria Žižkov and Dukla Praha recent form

Viktoria Žižkov 3W 2D 1L
Dukla Praha 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Viktoria Žižkov at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Dukla Praha away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
2.20
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Viktoria Žižkov at home only, Dukla Praha away only.

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Dukla Praha to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on Dukla Praha