Aalborg vs Vejle: model vs market
| Source | Aalborg | Draw | Vejle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 24% | 49% |
| Market | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Published | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Edge | -3% | -2% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.44.
- The market prices Vejle below the model: +5.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Aalborg vs Vejle odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vejle, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aalborg | 3.30 | 3.03 | -0.27 |
| Draw | 3.72 | 3.65 | -0.07 |
| Vejle | 1.95 | 2.12 | +0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aalborg and Vejle expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.42
- Attack rating (Aalborg / Vejle)
- 1.07 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Aalborg / Vejle)
- 1.11 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aalborg vs Vejle score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aalborg goals. Columns: Vejle goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aalborg vs Vejle goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aalborg vs Vejle
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aalborg | 30% | 3.35 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Vejle | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aalborg or draw) | 55% | 1.82 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Vejle) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vejle win by 2+ | 29% | 3.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Aalborg and Vejle recent form
Aalborg
1W 4D 1L
Vejle
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aalborg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Vejle away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aalborg at home only, Vejle away only.
Aalborg vs Vejle head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Aalborg 3 · draws 6 · Vejle 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-28 | Aalborg | 0-1 | Vejle | Superliga |
| 2025-04-06 | Vejle | 1-1 | Aalborg | Superliga |
| 2024-11-03 | Aalborg | 3-3 | Vejle | Superliga |
| 2024-10-04 | Vejle | 2-2 | Aalborg | Superliga |
| 2022-03-06 | Aalborg | 0-0 | Vejle | Superliga |
| 2021-08-16 | Vejle | 0-1 | Aalborg | Superliga |
| 2021-07-03 | Vejle | 1-1 | Aalborg | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2021-05-19 | Aalborg | 2-1 | Vejle | Superliga |
| 2021-04-16 | Vejle | 1-1 | Aalborg | Superliga |
| 2021-03-14 | Vejle | 0-2 | Aalborg | Superliga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- HB Koge v AB Copenhagen — match page 2026-10-16
- Kolding IF vs Vendsyssel FF 2026-10-16
- Aarhus Fremad v Esbjerg — match page 2026-10-16
- FC Fredericia vs Hobro 2026-10-17
- Hvidovre vs Hillerød — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Aalborg, previous: Esbjerg vs Aalborg: odds and pick
- Aalborg, next: Hillerød v Aalborg analysis
- Vejle, previous: Vejle – Hvidovre, 2026-10-09