FC Fredericia vs Hobro: model vs market
| Source | FC Fredericia | Draw | Hobro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| Market | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| Published | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
FC Fredericia vs Hobro odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Fredericia, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Fredericia | 1.36 | 1.40 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 4.80 | 4.57 | -0.23 |
| Hobro | 6.50 | 6.25 | -0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Fredericia and Hobro expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.02
- Attack rating (FC Fredericia / Hobro)
- 1.14 / 0.92
- Defence rating (FC Fredericia / Hobro)
- 0.69 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Fredericia vs Hobro score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Fredericia goals. Columns: Hobro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Fredericia vs Hobro goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Fredericia vs Hobro
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Fredericia | 66% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.94 | |
| Hobro | 14% | 7.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Fredericia or draw) | 86% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Hobro) | 34% | 2.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Fredericia win by 2+ | 43% | 2.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FC Fredericia and Hobro recent form
FC Fredericia
2W 2D 2L
Hobro
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Fredericia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Hobro away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Fredericia at home only, Hobro away only.
FC Fredericia vs Hobro head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Fredericia 5 · draws 3 · Hobro 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | Hobro | 1-4 | FC Fredericia | 1. Division |
| 2024-09-16 | FC Fredericia | 1-1 | Hobro | 1. Division |
| 2024-06-02 | FC Fredericia | 0-1 | Hobro | 1. Division |
| 2024-04-20 | Hobro | 1-2 | FC Fredericia | 1. Division |
| 2024-02-25 | Hobro | 0-2 | FC Fredericia | 1. Division |
| 2023-07-23 | FC Fredericia | 0-2 | Hobro | 1. Division |
| 2023-05-05 | FC Fredericia | 2-2 | Hobro | 1. Division |
| 2023-04-23 | Hobro | 0-1 | FC Fredericia | 1. Division |
| 2022-10-23 | FC Fredericia | 0-0 | Hobro | 1. Division |
| 2022-09-11 | Hobro | 1-3 | FC Fredericia | 1. Division |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- HB Koge v AB Copenhagen — match page 2026-10-16
- Kolding IF vs Vendsyssel FF 2026-10-16
- Aarhus Fremad v Esbjerg — match page 2026-10-16
- Aalborg vs Vejle — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Hvidovre vs Hillerød — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- FC Fredericia, previous: Hillerød v FC Fredericia analysis
- FC Fredericia, next: Esbjerg v FC Fredericia analysis
- Hobro, previous: Hobro vs Kolding IF prediction
- Hobro, next: Hobro vs Vendsyssel FF: odds and pick