Alianza vs FAS preview
In the Primera Division match between Alianza and FAS, the 1X2 probabilities show Alianza at 35%, FAS at 38%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score stands at 57%, while Over 2.5 goals is predicted at 52%.
Alianza's recent form includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, while FAS has 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses. The expected goals are 1.35 for Alianza and 1.42 for FAS, indicating a tight contest. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Alianza vs FAS: model vs market
| Source | Alianza | Draw | FAS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 28% | 38% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 35% | 28% | 38% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Alianza and FAS expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.78
- Attack rating (Alianza / FAS)
- 1.02 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Alianza / FAS)
- 1.03 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alianza vs FAS score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alianza goals. Columns: FAS goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alianza vs FAS goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alianza vs FAS
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza | 35% | 2.89 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| FAS | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alianza or draw) | 62% | 1.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or FAS) | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | FAS win by 2+ | 18% | 5.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Alianza and FAS recent form
Alianza
2W 2D 2L
FAS
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alianza at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
- They have won 6 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 19 matches.
FAS away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
- They have won 9 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Alianza at home only, FAS away only.
Alianza vs FAS head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Alianza 4 · draws 2 · FAS 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | FAS | 2-1 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2026-04-12 | Alianza | 0-2 | FAS | Primera Division |
| 2026-02-15 | FAS | 3-1 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2025-10-26 | FAS | 2-2 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2025-08-24 | Alianza | 2-0 | FAS | Primera Division |
| 2025-04-06 | Alianza | 1-0 | FAS | Primera Division |
| 2025-02-09 | FAS | 1-1 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2024-11-17 | FAS | 4-1 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2024-09-15 | Alianza | 1-0 | FAS | Primera Division |
| 2024-05-22 | Alianza | 2-1 | FAS | Primera Division |
Other Apertura - 21 fixtures
- Municipal Limeño v Fuerte San Francisco — match page 2026-11-05
- Firpo vs Isidro Metapán — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Inter vs Cacahuatique 2026-11-14
- Platense vs Atletico Balboa — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Inca Aruba vs Águila 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Alianza, previous: Fuerte San Francisco v Alianza analysis
- FAS, previous: FAS vs Inter: odds and pick